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114 records — exact wording, original source, anchored. Every one can be verified independently. Looking for a person? Browse forecasters.
Open predictions sorted by the deadline that settles them. The words and the test were locked before the outcome was known — when the date arrives, the locked test decides.
“Mike Johnson remains Speaker of the House through 11/3/2026”
“Democrats take control of the House before the 2026 midterms through special elections or party switches.”
“Human domestic robots like Optimus and Figure will be all demo and very little product.”
“No country will take a decisive lead in the GenAI “race””
“I expect the same will be true for Tesla — the first truly driverless Robotaxis will arrive in 2026, but technical and logistical challenges will limit how rapidly they expand.”
“I don’t expect Big Tech’s capital spending to grow as much in 2026 as it did in 2025, but I do expect it to grow, ultimately exceeding $500 billion for the year.”
“Counterpoint: Sora will have more active users than Vibes in a year (65%)”
“By the end of 2026, expect Meta’s models to still fall short of state-of-the-art — and Mark Zuckerberg to shuffle his executive lineup again in response.”
“In fact, I would argue that the more likely scenario is that 2026 is a red year for BTC while the ISM goes up, exactly like how it played out more than a decade ago.”
“I predict that will change in 2026: you’ll be able to buy a car that’s capable of operating with no one behind the wheel — at least in some limited areas.”
“Specifically, I predict that news mentions of “AI” and “suicide” in media databases will be at least three times higher in 2026 than in 2025.”
“Unless we have some very major setbacks, SpaceX will demonstrate full reusability next year, catching both the booster and the ship and delivering over a hundred tons to a useful orbit.”
“For some reason, the big AI labs haven’t released music models yet, but this is likely to happen in 2026.”
“By the end of 2026, AI will likely perform tasks that take a human 39 hours which is more than a full work week when you account for meetings and other non-task activities.”
“Models like Flux, Ideogram, Leonardo, Midjourney, and Reve will likely be acquired by multimodal AI labs such as Google, Meta, OpenAI, and xAI.”
“In contrast, 2026 will see the release of the first breakout hit video game created entirely by a creator with no formal programming skills who built the entire game using natural language prompts.”
“In 2026, Anthropic will debut on public markets. It will be one of the biggest and most highly anticipated IPOs of all-time.”
“One of the large global pharma companies will acquire one of the leading protein AI startups.”
“OpenAI, too, will eventually become a publicly traded company. But not in 2026.”
“Sam Altman will step aside as CEO of OpenAI.”
“A judge rules that Google must spin out its ad exchange”
“Look for at least three Democrats to win House seats promising to stop the construction of data centers in their districts, or creating new protections for people who lose their jobs to automation.”
“In 2026, look for a nation-state or group of cybercriminals to weaponize an LLM to cause significant damage, and give AI safety advocates the concrete evidence they’ve been looking for to push for stronger regulations on AI development.”
“Trump starts a legal fight with the European Union over tech regulation”
“The first asks “Will WHO declare hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern before 2027?” — as of the time of writing, the median of community predictions is at 2% and I am currently forecasting 0.4%”
“Btw just because I dumped my entire $HYPE bag, doesn't mean I still don't have faith $HYPE will best $SOL by year end. Sometimes you gotta go down to go up.”
“My rough target price for Ether by the end of 2026 is $5,000, which is ~2.6x up from current levels.”
“Our forecasters’ aggregate estimate for the number of confirmed Bundibugyo ebolavirus deaths reported by the end of 2026 is 5.1K to 42K, with a 50th percentile point at 12.8K.”
“Forecasters estimate that there is an aggregate 9.6% (5% to 15%) probability that a Google DeepMind model will be among the top 3 models at the end of 2026, according to Epoch’s capability index.”
“More precisely: there will be no unusual physical or economic catastrophe (dramatically larger than past incidents of a similar nature) in which AI plays a crucial enabling role.”
“Democrats win the House in the 2026 midterms.”
“Democrats win the Senate in 2026”
“Our forecasters’ 90% confidence interval for the largest number of deaths (civilian and/or military) that Russia will inflict in a NATO country in a single incident before August 15, 2027 is 0 to 20, with the 50th percentile- falling between zero and one deaths.”
“We won’t get to AGI in 2026 (or 7).”
“If there exist AI systems that can perform 8 of the 10 tasks below by the end of 2027, as determined by our panel of judges, Gary will donate $2,000 to a charity of Miles’ choice; if AI can do fewer than 8, Miles will donate $20,000 to a charity of Gary’s choice.”
“By the end of 2027 , AI will complete tasks that take a human two months, doing so in perhaps an hour while consuming roughly $100 worth of compute.”
“BTC will hit $250k by year-end 2027. 2026 is too chaotic to predict, though Bitcoin making new all-time highs in 2026 is still possible. Options markets are currently pricing about equal odds of $70k or $130k for month-end June 2026, and equal odds of $50k or $250k by year-end…”
“My assessment is that there’s roughly a 30% chance of a significant AI-driven market correction with at least a >20% drawdown in AI-heavy stocks, sometime within the next three years.”
“Of course bitcoin can still drop below realized price ($53k), like it did in every bear market bottom. But Oct $126k top was not the cycle top IMO. Based on stock-to-flow valuation, BTC could still go to $500k ($250k - $1m range) .. this cycle (2026-2028! Patience”
“Our forecasters think there’s a 5.2% (2% to 10%) chance that the US Senate will pause frontier AI development in the US before 2029, absent a treaty with China.”
“Democrats win the presidency in 2028.”
“At least one new Supreme Court vacancy in the 119th or 120th Congress.”
“If the AI gets an A on at least 5 of out 6 of those exams using same grading scale as his students, then Bryan owes Matthew $500. Otherwise, Matthew owes Bryan $500. For the purpose of this bet, an A- counts as an A.”
“I’ve paid him $250, and if the world doesn’t end by January 1, 2030, Colburn will repay me $500 inflation-adjusted.”
“By the end of 2030 (when superintelligence is expected), AI will perform tasks that take humans approximately 100 years to complete, doing so in less than a day.”
Also on the record: the historical archive — claims registered after their outcome was already known, kept separate and never counted in anyone’s track record.