Predictions on the record.

“Running this, I get a 4% chance that there will be more than 5 cases from people outside those on the Hondius cruise, with a 70% chance of at least one non-passenger case by August, and about a 17% chance of three or more.”

“The Fed will maintain the interest rate in their September decision”

“So here’s my prediction: inflation-adjusted GDP in the third quarter of 2026 will not be more than 3.5% higher than the third quarter of 2025.”

“Byron Donalds will be elected Governor of Florida on November 3, 2026, becoming Florida’s next governor.”

“In the midterms, AI will be an election issue for first time.”

“I expect the same will be true for Tesla — the first truly driverless Robotaxis will arrive in 2026, but technical and logistical challenges will limit how rapidly they expand.”

“Bitcoin will reach 200k by the end of 2026.”

“Human domestic robots like Optimus and Figure will be all demo and very little product.”

“In fact, I would argue that the more likely scenario is that 2026 is a red year for BTC while the ISM goes up, exactly like how it played out more than a decade ago.”

“No country will take a decisive lead in the GenAI “race””

“Counterpoint: Sora will have more active users than Vibes in a year (65%)”

“My rough target price for Ether by the end of 2026 is $5,000, which is ~2.6x up from current levels.”

“The first asks “Will WHO declare hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern before 2027?” — as of the time of writing, the median of community predictions is at 2% and I am currently forecasting 0.4%”

“Our forecasters’ aggregate estimate for the number of confirmed Bundibugyo ebolavirus deaths reported by the end of 2026 is 5.1K to 42K, with a 50th percentile point at 12.8K.”

“Forecasters estimate that there is an aggregate 9.6% (5% to 15%) probability that a Google DeepMind model will be among the top 3 models at the end of 2026, according to Epoch’s capability index.”

“I don’t expect Big Tech’s capital spending to grow as much in 2026 as it did in 2025, but I do expect it to grow, ultimately exceeding $500 billion for the year.”

“Our forecasters’ 90% confidence interval for the largest number of deaths (civilian and/or military) that Russia will inflict in a NATO country in a single incident before August 15, 2027 is 0 to 20, with the 50th percentile- falling between zero and one deaths.”

“If there exist AI systems that can perform 8 of the 10 tasks below by the end of 2027, as determined by our panel of judges, Gary will donate $2,000 to a charity of Miles’ choice; if AI can do fewer than 8, Miles will donate $20,000 to a charity of Gary’s choice.”

“We won’t get to AGI in 2026 (or 7).”

“My assessment is that there’s roughly a 30% chance of a significant AI-driven market correction with at least a >20% drawdown in AI-heavy stocks, sometime within the next three years.”

“Of course bitcoin can still drop below realized price ($53k), like it did in every bear market bottom. But Oct $126k top was not the cycle top IMO. Based on stock-to-flow valuation, BTC could still go to $500k ($250k - $1m range) .. this cycle (2026-2028! Patience”

“Our forecasters think there’s a 5.2% (2% to 10%) chance that the US Senate will pause frontier AI development in the US before 2029, absent a treaty with China.”

“AOC will be president in 2028.”

“If the AI gets an A on at least 5 of out 6 of those exams using same grading scale as his students, then Bryan owes Matthew $500. Otherwise, Matthew owes Bryan $500. For the purpose of this bet, an A- counts as an A.”

“I’ve paid him $250, and if the world doesn’t end by January 1, 2030, Colburn will repay me $500 inflation-adjusted.”