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Timothy B. Lee called it:
“I expect the same will be true for Tesla — the first truly driverless Robotaxis will arrive in 2026, but technical and logistical challenges will limit how rapidly they expand.”
We find out by Dec 31, 2026. 100 days to go · on the record 31 days, before anyone knew the answer
MET if Tesla begins offering paid Robotaxi rides to the general public in at least one city with no Tesla employee inside the vehicle (no driver and no safety monitor). Rides with an in-car safety monitor, employee-only or invite-only pilots, and demonstrations do not count at any point, before 2026-12-31 23:59 (UTC).
Settles by documented review of public evidence against these locked criteria; the reviewer is named and the reasoning published.
Settles TRUE if, on or before December 31, 2026, Tesla offers Robotaxi rides to members of the general public in at least one city in vehicles with no Tesla employee on board (no safety driver and no safety monitor in the passenger seat). Rides limited to employees or invited testers, or rides with a Tesla safety monitor aboard, do not count.
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Prediction #11 (70% confidence), headlined 'Tesla will begin offering a truly driverless taxi service to the general public in at least one city'.
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