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Elon Musk called it:
“Unless we have some very major setbacks, SpaceX will demonstrate full reusability next year, catching both the booster and the ship and delivering over a hundred tons to a useful orbit.”
We find out by Dec 31, 2026. 100 days to go · on the record 26 days, before anyone knew the answer
MET if (SpaceX conducts a Starship launch in which BOTH the Super Heavy booster and the Starship upper stage are caught on return (tower/catch-arm capture or equivalent recovery-by-catch). Ocean splashdowns, expendable stages, or landings on legs do not count as a catch and A SpaceX Starship flight delivers more than 100 metric tons of payload mass (including mass simulators, per SpaceX-stated or FAA/regulatory-documented figures) to a stable orbit. Suborbital or transatmospheric trajectories do not count) at any point, before 2026-12-31 23:59 (UTC).
Settles by documented review of public evidence against these locked criteria; the reviewer is named and the reasoning published.
The original wording did not settle the timing on its own. The reading above was chosen at registration and locked with the claim — it was not decided after the fact.
Resolves true if, on or before 2026-12-31, SpaceX conducts a Starship flight (or flights) in which the Super Heavy booster is caught by the launch tower/catch arms and the Starship upper stage is also caught on return, and in which Starship delivers a payload of more than 100 metric tons to orbit. Splashdown or landing on legs does not count as a catch; mass simulators/payload demonstrators do count as payload if SpaceX or regulatory filings state the delivered mass exceeded 100 metric tons; suborbital trajectories do not count as 'a useful orbit'.
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History — append-only
Proof
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Transcribed from the audio and confirmed by the submitter, who listened to this passage. YouTube confirms the video and the channel, not the words — those are checkable in one click by anyone. Watch the full moment →
From "Elon Musk on DOGE, Optimus, Starlink Smartphones, Evolving with AI, Why the West is Imploding" (All-In Podcast).
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