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Nate Silver called it:
“At least one new Supreme Court vacancy in the 119th or 120th Congress.”
We find out by Jan 3, 2029. 834 days to go · on the record 26 days, before anyone knew the answer
MET if A seat on the U.S. Supreme Court becomes vacant (death, retirement effective, resignation or removal of a sitting justice), per official Supreme Court announcements at any point, before 2029-01-03 23:59 (America/New_York).
Settles by documented review of public evidence against these locked criteria; the reviewer is named and the reasoning published.
Resolves YES if at any time during the 119th or 120th Congress (January 3, 2025 through January 3, 2029) a seat on the U.S. Supreme Court becomes vacant through death, retirement, resignation or removal of a sitting justice. Announced-but-not-effective retirements do not count until the seat is actually vacant. Resolves NO if no vacancy occurs in that period.
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History — append-only
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Related
Seventh listed prediction in Silver's '113 predictions' post, assigned 85%, citing Alito's and Thomas's ages.
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