Open until 2026-12-31 — 134 days away. Settlement rests on public evidence, gathered and checked after the deadline.
Benjamin Cowen: “In fact, I would argue that the more likely scenario is that 2026 is a red year for BTC while the ISM goes up, exactly like how it played out more than a decade ago.”
“In fact, I would argue that the more likely scenario is that 2026 is a red year for BTC while the ISM goes up, exactly like how it played out more than a decade ago.”
MET if (the percentage change in BTC-USD close is below 0 and the percentage change in NAPM value is above 0) on the deadline date, before 2026-12-31 23:59 (America/New_York).
The original wording did not settle the timing on its own. The reading above was chosen at registration and locked with the claim — it was not decided after the fact.
Resolves TRUE if BOTH: (1) Bitcoin's USD price closes 2026 lower than it closed 2025 (Coinbase BTC-USD daily close on 2026-12-31 below the daily close on 2025-12-31), i.e. a negative calendar-year return; AND (2) the ISM Manufacturing PMI headline value for December 2026 (as published by the Institute for Supply Management) is higher than the ISM Manufacturing PMI headline value for December 2025. Resolves FALSE if either condition fails.
Thonest does not settle this one automatically — there is no supported data source for it. The test is fixed all the same, so anyone can check it and nobody can change what counts.
Quote verified against the source
Post on X in which Cowen lays out his view of the 2026 Bitcoin cycle alongside the ISM manufacturing index.
Resolution criteria
Resolves TRUE if BOTH: (1) Bitcoin's USD price closes 2026 lower than it closed 2025 (Coinbase BTC-USD daily close on 2026-12-31 below the daily close on 2025-12-31), i.e. a negative calendar-year return; AND (2) the ISM Manufacturing PMI headline value for December 2026 (as published by the Institute for Supply Management) is higher than the ISM Manufacturing PMI headline value for December 2025. Resolves FALSE if either condition fails.
History — append-only
Proof
2 hashes from this record to the anchored root
- 0x1e13d887b9c9665b65fe999c9aef8411222fbaf80f63f4734edb7e254509e68a
- 0x02b0002b63dcf97b8ee97a11f5fa52a40172f292d3218658512b12707be9aab5
batch #6 manifest · 4 entries
the contract refuses any batch that doesn’t follow the previous one, and has no function to edit or delete one — including for us
0xcab603f4…0057f8 on block explorer
This platform blocks archiving services, so no independent copy exists.
reported by the platform itself, not by the submitter
view the raw response · the platform's own API response, kept verbatim and covered by the evidence hash
✓ The original record is immutable. Everything that happened afterward is in the history above — nothing is ever silently edited.
The check runs in your browser and reads the anchored root straight from a public Base node — not from Thonest. How this works.
Disputes
No disputes have been filed. If something here is wrong — a misquote, a wrong date, a misattributed source — say so and it gets answered on the record. How disputes work.
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