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Benjamin Cowen called it:
“In fact, I would argue that the more likely scenario is that 2026 is a red year for BTC while the ISM goes up, exactly like how it played out more than a decade ago.”
We find out by Dec 31, 2026. 100 days to go · on the record 34 days, before anyone knew the answer
MET if (the percentage change in BTC-USD close is below 0 and the percentage change in NAPM value is above 0) on the deadline date, before 2026-12-31 23:59 (America/New_York).
Settles by documented review of public evidence against these locked criteria; the reviewer is named and the reasoning published.
The original wording did not settle the timing on its own. The reading above was chosen at registration and locked with the claim — it was not decided after the fact.
Resolves TRUE if BOTH: (1) Bitcoin's USD price closes 2026 lower than it closed 2025 (Coinbase BTC-USD daily close on 2026-12-31 below the daily close on 2025-12-31), i.e. a negative calendar-year return; AND (2) the ISM Manufacturing PMI headline value for December 2026 (as published by the Institute for Supply Management) is higher than the ISM Manufacturing PMI headline value for December 2025. Resolves FALSE if either condition fails.
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Post on X in which Cowen lays out his view of the 2026 Bitcoin cycle alongside the ISM manufacturing index.
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