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Sophia Tung called it:
“I predict that will change in 2026: you’ll be able to buy a car that’s capable of operating with no one behind the wheel — at least in some limited areas.”
We find out by Dec 31, 2026. 100 days to go · on the record 26 days, before anyone knew the answer
MET if A consumer can purchase a vehicle capable of fully driverless (level four) operation with no one behind the wheel, at least within limited geographic areas, with sales/deliveries to retail customers beginning during calendar 2026. Level-two driver-assistance systems, robotaxi-only fleets and press or developer units do not count at any point, before 2026-12-31 23:59 (UTC).
Settles by documented review of public evidence against these locked criteria; the reviewer is named and the reasoning published.
Settles TRUE if, during calendar 2026, a company begins selling to consumers a vehicle capable of level-four driverless operation (able to operate with no one behind the wheel, at least within limited areas), with the capability available to retail buyers. Demonstrations, robotaxi fleet vehicles not sold to consumers, and driver-assistance (level two) systems do not count. Settles FALSE if no such consumer vehicle is sold in 2026.
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Prediction #10 (75% confidence), headed 'The first fully autonomous vehicle will be sold to consumers — but it won’t be from Tesla'.
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