Bryan Caplan said it:
“I’ve paid him $250, and if the world doesn’t end by January 1, 2030, Colburn will repay me $500 inflation-adjusted.”
We find out by Jan 1, 2030. 1,228 days to go
Bryan Caplan: “I’ve paid him $250, and if the world doesn’t end by January 1, 2030, Colburn will repay me $500 inflation-adjusted.”
MET if On January 1, 2030, there are still biological humans running around on the surface of the Earth (the explicit definition of the world not having ended used in the Caplan-Yudkowsky bet terms Colburn accepted). Partial catastrophes, mass casualties, or civilizational collapse do NOT count as the world ending so long as biological humans remain alive on the Earth's surface on the deadline date, before 2030-01-01 00:00 (UTC).
Settles by documented review of public evidence against these locked criteria; the reviewer is named and the reasoning published.
Test details
Settled on January 1, 2030: if biological humans are still alive and present on the surface of the Earth on that date (i.e. the world has not ended by the bet's own definition), the condition holds and Colburn owes Caplan $500 inflation-adjusted against the $250 Caplan prepaid.
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Read the original on betonit.ai ↗
Caplan announces a new end-of-the-world bet with Greg Colburn (Colbourn) on his Substack blog, April 21, 2026.
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Proof
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