Open Settles automaticallyPredictionDeadline Dec 31, 2028
36 days on the record865 to go

Open until 2028-12-31 — 865 days away. Thonest reads the locked data source and settles this itself.

PlanB: “Of course bitcoin can still drop below realized price ($53k), like it did in every bear market bottom. But Oct $126k top was not the cycle top IMO. Based on stock-to-flow valuation, BTC could still go to $500k ($250k - $1m range) .. this cycle (2026-2028! Patience

Of course bitcoin can still drop below realized price ($53k), like it did in every bear market bottom. But Oct $126k top was not the cycle top IMO. Based on stock-to-flow valuation, BTC could still go to $500k ($250k - $1m range) .. this cycle (2026-2028! Patience
🔒 The test — locked 2026-08-19, before the outcome was known

MET if BTC-USD price is at or above 250,000 at any point, before 2028-12-31 23:59 (UTC).

Settled byautomatic
Window2026-07-15 2028-12-31
TimezoneUTC
Data vintagelatest_revision
Min source tier1
Contract hash0x26554314…eceed3

The original wording did not settle the timing on its own. The reading above was chosen at registration and locked with the claim — it was not decided after the fact.

Quote verified against the source

PlanBX (Twitter)Said Jul 15, 2026Captured Aug 19, 2026

See the original post on X

Post on X in which PlanB argues the October 2025 $126k high was not the cycle top and restates his stock-to-flow price target range for the 2026-2028 cycle.

Resolution criteria

Resolves YES if the Coinbase BTC-USD spot price trades at or above $250,000 (the low end of the stated $250k-$1m stock-to-flow range) at any point from 2026-07-15 through 2028-12-31 23:59 UTC. Resolves NO if BTC-USD never reaches $250,000 in that window.

History — append-only

2026-08-19
Recorded · Recorded and locked from the original source

Proof

Evidence hash0x3a0b0556…e19487
Source snapshot0x66e40f25…332e1d
Record fingerprint0x3a0b0556bed79214a987f10471d94f211b0bcf0ee0ae2465e05752403ae19487
Proof path
2 hashes from this record to the anchored root
  1. 0x193c2190430bc8c16c74c383cae068432fb262365d44f14796986bab95b1628e
  2. 0x877a5478d3be7bb8d6481e3572e29eb04787806b771748037e2f532a80881f41
Merkle root0xc924b1a12f08fafd50d96b4bd2761ffd60e6e049a2bdead51feaab1fd07b1061
batch #16 manifest · 4 entries
Registry0x3d74d9e2f0f4c741fc49b34cc119b6db0cef47c0 · entry #15
the contract refuses any batch that doesn’t follow the previous one, and has no function to edit or delete one — including for us
Anchored onchainbase-mainnet · Aug 19, 2026
0x9a6402bd…3607aa on block explorer
Third-party archiveNone
This platform blocks archiving services, so no independent copy exists.
Quote checkThe quote appears verbatim in the response the platform returned.
Posted by@100trillionUSD (PlanB)
reported by the platform itself, not by the submitter
Platform capture0xa594248d208170cb563811e34cf17f5d618506dd4dd40e3fb8eb5314b0fae79d
view the raw response · the platform's own API response, kept verbatim and covered by the evidence hash

✓ The original record is immutable. Everything that happened afterward is in the history above — nothing is ever silently edited.

Verify this record yourself

The check runs in your browser and reads the anchored root straight from a public Base node — not from Thonest. How this works.

Disputes

No disputes have been filed. If something here is wrong — a misquote, a wrong date, a misattributed source — say so and it gets answered on the record. How disputes work.

Related

BitcoinStock-to-Flow model