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PlanB called it:
“Of course bitcoin can still drop below realized price ($53k), like it did in every bear market bottom. But Oct $126k top was not the cycle top IMO. Based on stock-to-flow valuation, BTC could still go to $500k ($250k - $1m range) .. this cycle (2026-2028! Patience”
We find out by Dec 31, 2028. 831 days to go · on the record 34 days, before anyone knew the answer
MET if BTC-USD price is at or above 250,000 at any point, before 2028-12-31 23:59 (UTC).
Settles automatically from the locked data source — no judgment call, no human vote.
The original wording did not settle the timing on its own. The reading above was chosen at registration and locked with the claim — it was not decided after the fact.
Resolves YES if the Coinbase BTC-USD spot price trades at or above $250,000 (the low end of the stated $250k-$1m stock-to-flow range) at any point from 2026-07-15 through 2028-12-31 23:59 UTC. Resolves NO if BTC-USD never reaches $250,000 in that window.
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Discussion
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Post on X in which PlanB argues the October 2025 $126k high was not the cycle top and restates his stock-to-flow price target range for the 2026-2028 cycle.
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Proof
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