Open until 2028-12-31 — 865 days away. Thonest reads the locked data source and settles this itself.
PlanB: “Of course bitcoin can still drop below realized price ($53k), like it did in every bear market bottom. But Oct $126k top was not the cycle top IMO. Based on stock-to-flow valuation, BTC could still go to $500k ($250k - $1m range) .. this cycle (2026-2028! Patience”
“Of course bitcoin can still drop below realized price ($53k), like it did in every bear market bottom. But Oct $126k top was not the cycle top IMO. Based on stock-to-flow valuation, BTC could still go to $500k ($250k - $1m range) .. this cycle (2026-2028! Patience”
MET if BTC-USD price is at or above 250,000 at any point, before 2028-12-31 23:59 (UTC).
The original wording did not settle the timing on its own. The reading above was chosen at registration and locked with the claim — it was not decided after the fact.
Quote verified against the source
Post on X in which PlanB argues the October 2025 $126k high was not the cycle top and restates his stock-to-flow price target range for the 2026-2028 cycle.
Resolution criteria
Resolves YES if the Coinbase BTC-USD spot price trades at or above $250,000 (the low end of the stated $250k-$1m stock-to-flow range) at any point from 2026-07-15 through 2028-12-31 23:59 UTC. Resolves NO if BTC-USD never reaches $250,000 in that window.
History — append-only
Proof
2 hashes from this record to the anchored root
- 0x193c2190430bc8c16c74c383cae068432fb262365d44f14796986bab95b1628e
- 0x877a5478d3be7bb8d6481e3572e29eb04787806b771748037e2f532a80881f41
batch #16 manifest · 4 entries
the contract refuses any batch that doesn’t follow the previous one, and has no function to edit or delete one — including for us
0x9a6402bd…3607aa on block explorer
This platform blocks archiving services, so no independent copy exists.
reported by the platform itself, not by the submitter
view the raw response · the platform's own API response, kept verbatim and covered by the evidence hash
✓ The original record is immutable. Everything that happened afterward is in the history above — nothing is ever silently edited.
The check runs in your browser and reads the anchored root straight from a public Base node — not from Thonest. How this works.
Disputes
No disputes have been filed. If something here is wrong — a misquote, a wrong date, a misattributed source — say so and it gets answered on the record. How disputes work.
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