Loading…
Timothy B. Lee called it:
“Counterpoint: Sora will have more active users than Vibes in a year (65%)”
We find out by Dec 31, 2026. 100 days to go · on the record 31 days, before anyone knew the answer
MET if OpenAI's Sora app has a higher active-user count than Meta's Vibes as of 2026-12-31, established from company-stated figures or reputable public reporting using the same active-user measure (e.g., daily or monthly active users) for both products over a roughly contemporaneous period. Downloads, cumulative installs, or generated-video counts do not count as active users; Sora-branded features embedded in other products (e.g., video generation inside ChatGPT) count only if the cited figure covers them for both sides comparably on the deadline date, before 2026-12-31 23:59 (UTC).
Settles by documented review of public evidence against these locked criteria; the reviewer is named and the reasoning published.
The original wording did not settle the timing on its own. The reading above was chosen at registration and locked with the claim — it was not decided after the fact.
Resolves TRUE if, as of December 31, 2026, credible public reporting or company-stated figures show OpenAI's Sora app has more active users (on the same active-user measure and roughly contemporaneous period) than Meta's Vibes. Resolves FALSE if Vibes equals or exceeds Sora on that measure. If no comparable active-user figures for both products are publicly available by the deadline, the claim is unresolved.
Quote verified against the source
History — append-only
Proof
Disputes
No disputes have been filed. If something here is wrong — a misquote, a wrong date, a misattributed source — say so and it gets answered on the record. How disputes work.
Related
Added by Thonest from a public source. The person quoted did not submit, approve, or endorse this record; the wording is verified against the source itself.
Reactions are about the record being worth keeping — never about whether the person was right. They are never counted for or against anyone, and never used to rank anything.
Discussion
Loading…
Prediction #17 in Understanding AI's year-end post '17 predictions for AI in 2026', published December 31, 2025, presented as a counterpoint in a disagreement between the two Understanding AI writers about OpenAI's Sora app versus Meta's Vibes.
✓ The anchored proof cannot be rewritten, and the published record is append-only by default. Everything that happened afterward is in the history above — corrections are appended, never silently edited in.
The check runs in your browser and reads the anchored root straight from a public Base node — not from Thonest. How this works.