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Peter Wildeford called it:
“The first asks “Will WHO declare hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern before 2027?” — as of the time of writing, the median of community predictions is at 2% and I am currently forecasting 0.4%”
We find out by Dec 31, 2026. 100 days to go · on the record 31 days, before anyone knew the answer
MET if The World Health Organization declares hantavirus (the MV Hondius Andes-virus situation) a Public Health Emergency of International Concern under the International Health Regulations. Only a formal WHO PHEIC declaration counts; WHO risk assessments, situation reports, or 'grade 3 emergency' classifications do not count at any point, before 2026-12-31 23:59 (UTC).
Settles by documented review of public evidence against these locked criteria; the reviewer is named and the reasoning published.
Resolves YES if the World Health Organization formally declares the hantavirus situation a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) at any point before January 1, 2027, per an official WHO/IHR Emergency Committee statement. Wildeford put the probability of this at 0.4%.
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In a blog post analyzing the MV Hondius Andes-hantavirus outbreak, Wildeford cites his own Metaculus forecast on a WHO emergency declaration.
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