Arthur Hayes called it:

My rough target price for Ether by the end of 2026 is $5,000, which is ~2.6x up from current levels.

We find out by Dec 31, 2026. 132 days to go

Open

Arthur Hayes: “My rough target price for Ether by the end of 2026 is $5,000, which is ~2.6x up from current levels.

🔒 The test · locked Aug 22, 2026

MET if ETH-USD price is at or above 5,000 at any point, before 2026-12-31 23:59 (UTC).

Settles automatically from the locked data source — no judgment call, no human vote.

The original wording did not settle the timing on its own. The reading above was chosen at registration and locked with the claim — it was not decided after the fact.

Test details
Settled byautomatic
Window2026-08-04 2026-12-31
TimezoneUTC
Data vintagelatest_revision
Min source tier2
Contract hash0xf6022fe6…e0aeaf
Full resolution criteria

Resolves TRUE if the price of Ether (ETH-USD) reaches or exceeds $5,000 at any point between 2026-08-04 and 2026-12-31T23:59:59 UTC, per Coinbase ETH-USD data.

Quote verified against the source

Arthur HayesCrypto Trader Digest (Substack)Said Aug 4, 2026Added to Thonest Aug 22, 2026Anchored Aug 22, 2026

Added by Thonest from a public source. The person quoted did not submit, approve, or endorse this record; the wording is verified against the source itself.

Read the original on Substack

In the 'Bitcoin Crack-Up Boom' section of his essay 'Situationship', laying out his Ether trade thesis based on RWA/tokenization narratives.

History — append-only

2026-08-22
Recorded · Recorded and locked from the original source

Proof

Evidence hash0x0733a3d6…033c84
Source snapshot
Record fingerprint0x0733a3d68dcf3a8a705384a2e38d476129f78b47c1a66f1971f9108b50033c84
Proof path
2 hashes from this record to the anchored root
  1. 0x35e02d92a090f308c9a9a2790236e48254264bd2bbe77298f3a3142fe02928bc
  2. 0xc1d70fed29a7711fffb85b515e1009fee5ad0d91290b629df5914098e931e224
Merkle root0x84bc2dbc1b70d628c7a88f8343b12901b40df6e66f5737a8e1e2c06ac0f3318e
batch #61 manifest · 4 entries
Registry0x3d74d9e2f0f4c741fc49b34cc119b6db0cef47c0 · entry #60
the contract refuses any batch that doesn’t follow the previous one, and has no function to edit or delete one — including for us
Anchored onchainbase-mainnet · Aug 22, 2026
0x19fe27cf…32153a on block explorer
Quote checkThe quote appears verbatim in the response the platform returned.
Platform capture0xb692948e5e1478372319984c8bff2ea376524e5121358f3149298b15bc8a67a5
view the canonical capture · the page as served to us, kept verbatim and covered by the evidence hash

✓ The anchored proof cannot be rewritten, and the published record is append-only by default. Everything that happened afterward is in the history above — corrections are appended, never silently edited in.

Verify this record yourself

The check runs in your browser and reads the anchored root straight from a public Base node — not from Thonest. How this works.

Disputes

No disputes have been filed. If something here is wrong — a misquote, a wrong date, a misattributed source — say so and it gets answered on the record. How disputes work.

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