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Jakob Nielsen called it:
“By the end of 2030 (when superintelligence is expected), AI will perform tasks that take humans approximately 100 years to complete, doing so in less than a day.”
We find out by Dec 31, 2030. 1,561 days to go · on the record 26 days, before anyone knew the answer
MET if A published time-horizon evaluation (METR or equivalent methodology) reports a frontier AI system autonomously completing tasks requiring at least 100 person-years of human effort at any point, before 2030-12-31 23:59 (UTC).
Settles by documented review of public evidence against these locked criteria; the reviewer is named and the reasoning published.
The original wording did not settle the timing on its own. The reading above was chosen at registration and locked with the claim — it was not decided after the fact.
Settled true if, on or before 2030-12-31, a published time-horizon evaluation (METR or equivalent) reports a frontier AI system autonomously completing tasks that would require at least 100 person-years of human effort. Otherwise false.
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Prediction 1 of Nielsen's 18 predictions for 2026, projecting the AI task-horizon curve out to 2030.
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