The public record for predictions

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On the record

Open
“If the AI gets an A on at least 5 of out 6 of those exams using same grading scale as his students, then Bryan owes Matthew $500. Otherwise, Matthew owes Bryan $500. For the purpose of this bet, an A- counts as an A.”
🔒 The test, locked at registration

MET if (An AI selected by Matthew Barnett, given one attempt at each of Bryan Caplan's six most recent midterm exams, receives a grade of A or A- from Bryan Caplan on at least 5 of the 6 exams, graded on the same scale…

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Bryan CaplanSaid Jan 19, 2023Added to Thonest Aug 22, 2026893 days left

Coming due

Open
“Running this, I get a 4% chance that there will be more than 5 cases from people outside those on the Hondius cruise, with a 70% chance of at least one non-passenger case by August, and about a 17% chance of three or more.”
Peter WildefordSaid May 11, 2026Added to Thonest Aug 22, 202610 days left
OpenSelf-registered
“The Fed will maintain the interest rate in their September decision”
Justin KompfRegistered Aug 19, 202626 days left
Open
“So here’s my prediction: inflation-adjusted GDP in the third quarter of 2026 will not be more than 3.5% higher than the third quarter of 2025.”
Timothy B. LeeSaid Dec 31, 2025Added to Thonest Aug 22, 202640 days left

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How it works

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What gets checked, and how to verify it yourself →

Why this is worth more than a screenshot

A screenshot proves nothing — anyone can fake one, and the post behind it can be edited or deleted. Every record here carries four things instead, each checkable by someone who thinks we’re lying.

1 · The words are checked against the sourceWe never take a submitter’s word for a quote. For posts and articles the platform is asked directly and the wording must appear in its own response. For video and podcasts the source is transcribed and the words confirmed at the moment they were said, by the speaker who said them.
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3 · Two dates, never mixed upWhen they said it, and when Thonest registered it. Only a record registered before the outcome was known can claim it was locked in advance — anything added afterwards says so plainly.
4 · Tamper-evident by designThe anchored cryptographic proof cannot be rewritten, and published records are append-only by default — corrections are appended in the open, never silently edited in. Anyone can check whether a record changed after it was published.

How the proof works, and how to check it yourself →

⛓ Latest anchor — check it yourself
Batch#69
Merkle root0x2270bec2ad4e2b5b…
Records committed4
Transaction0xefd39a08c83c…

That link goes to a block explorer, not to us. Recompute any record’s proof in your browser →

What we deliberately don’t claim: none of this proves a statement is true. Provenance shows where it came from; anchoring shows it hasn’t changed. Anyone who tells you a blockchain makes something true is selling you something. The full argument, including what could still go wrong →

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