The public record for predictions

Called it? Prove it.

Lock your prediction before the outcome — the exact words, the original source, and the test that settles it — so nobody can rewrite the story later. Make the call here, or register one made anywhere else.

Lock my prediction Record someone else’s

Explore predictions · See what’s coming due · No account needed to read or verify anything.

On the record

Open⚙ Settles automaticallySelf-registered

“On September 15, 2026, Bitcoin will be above $50,000.”

🔒 The test, locked at registration

MET if BTC-USD close is above 50,000 on the deadline date, before 2026-09-15 23:59 (UTC).

Thonest SelftestRegistered Aug 21, 202626 days left

The prediction doesn’t have to start here.

A call made on X, a podcast, YouTube, Substack, CNBC — or here — becomes the same locked record: the exact words, the original source, the date, and the test that settles it. You said it first? Now you can prove it.

Said on XPaste the post. We fetch it and confirm the account.

Said on a podcast or videoPaste the link. We transcribe it and confirm the words at the moment they were said.

Said hereWrite it directly. The timestamp is the proof.

How it works

Put it on the record. Make your own prediction, or paste a public source where someone else made one.
Lock the test. Thonest works out what would settle it, by when, and from which source — and shows you that in plain English. You confirm before anything locks.
See what happens. Predictions settle the moment their locked condition becomes conclusive. Nobody moves the goalposts afterwards, including us.

What gets checked, and how to verify it yourself →

Why this is worth more than a screenshot

A screenshot proves nothing — anyone can fake one, and the post behind it can be edited or deleted. Every record here carries four things instead, each checkable by someone who thinks we’re lying.

1 · The words are checked against the sourceWe never take a submitter’s word for a quote. For posts and articles the platform is asked directly and the wording must appear in its own response. For video and podcasts the source is transcribed and the words confirmed at the moment they were said, by the speaker who said them.

2 · An independent copyWe ask the Internet Archive to save the page at capture time, on a server we don’t control. Every record reports the same four verification layers and states plainly when a layer is unavailable.

3 · Two dates, never mixed upWhen they said it, and when Thonest registered it. Only a record registered before the outcome was known can claim it was locked in advance — anything added afterwards says so plainly.

4 · Tamper-evident by designThe anchored cryptographic proof cannot be rewritten, and published records are append-only by default — corrections are appended in the open, never silently edited in. Anyone can check whether a record changed after it was published.

How the proof works, and how to check it yourself →

⛓ Latest anchor — check it yourself

Batch#49

Merkle root0x813a5504acde24d8…

Records committed4

Transaction0x5f91fd8fbdd9…

That link goes to a block explorer, not to us. Recompute any record’s proof in your browser →

What we deliberately don’t claim: none of this proves a statement is true. Provenance shows where it came from; anchoring shows it hasn’t changed. Anyone who tells you a blockchain makes something true is selling you something. The full argument, including what could still go wrong →

Coming due

Open⚙ Settles automaticallySelf-registered