The public record for predictions
Called it? Prove it.
Lock your prediction before the outcome — the exact words, the original source, and the test that settles it — so nobody can rewrite the story later. Make the call here, or register one made anywhere else.
See what’s coming due · No account needed to read or verify anything.
On the record
“We're seeing foreclosures jump across the board, right, 39.69%”
The prediction doesn’t have to start here.
A call made on X, a podcast, YouTube, Substack, CNBC — or here — becomes the same locked record: the exact words, the original source, the date, and the test that settles it. You said it first? Now you can prove it.
How it works
- Put it on the record. Make your own prediction, or paste a public source where someone else made one.
- Lock the test. Thonest works out what would settle it, by when, and from which source — and shows you that in plain English. You confirm before anything locks.
- See what happens. Predictions settle the moment their locked condition becomes conclusive. Nobody moves the goalposts afterwards, including us.
Why this is worth more than a screenshot
A screenshot proves nothing — anyone can fake one, and the post behind it can be edited or deleted. Every record here carries four things instead, each checkable by someone who thinks we’re lying.
That link goes to a block explorer, not to us. Recompute any record’s proof in your browser →
What we deliberately don’t claim: none of this proves a statement is true. Provenance shows where it came from; anchoring shows it hasn’t changed. Anyone who tells you a blockchain makes something true is selling you something. The full argument, including what could still go wrong →
Coming due
Recently settled
“I will take that bet. You buy 1 BTC. I will send $1M USD. This is ~40:1 odds as 1 BTC is worth ~$26k. The term is 90 days.”
“no that is not true. s2f model is a simple linear regression. parameters, stats and bounds are in the article, everyone can replicate and verify. I will call s2f invalidated if we have not reached 100K by Dec this year, we can not stay at current levels for the rest of the year.”
Recently registered
“the Al-Aqsa Mosque is destroyed.”
“the Bank of Japan, the central bank, will hike again to 1.25% sometime later this year”
“Trump will get a third term.”
“If there exist AI systems that can perform 8 of the 10 tasks below by the end of 2027, as determined by our panel of judges, Gary will donate $2,000 to a charity of Miles’ choice; if AI can do fewer than 8, Miles will donate $20,000 to a charity of Gary’s choice.”
“In the midterms, AI will be an election issue for first time.”