Gary Marcus: “If there exist AI systems that can perform 8 of the 10 tasks below by the end of 2027, as determined by our panel of judges, Gary will donate $2,000 to a charity of Miles’ choice; if AI can do fewer than 8, Miles will donate $20,000 to a charity of Gary’s choice.”

MET if The panel of judges mutually agreed by Gary Marcus and Miles Brundage determines that AI systems existed by the end of 2027 that can perform at least 8 of the 10 tasks listed in the 30 December 2024 post (movie comprehension, novel comprehension, biographies/obituaries, video-game mastery, legal briefs, 10,000+ line bug-free code, Pulitzer-caliber books, Oscar-caliber screenplays, Nobel-caliber discoveries, formalization of math proofs), where tasks need not have been actually attempted commercially but must be technically feasible with modest per-task cost (roughly $1 million of compute plus 10 person-weeks), and where the tasks are not performed by 10 completely separate bespoke systems. at any point, before 2027-12-31 23:59 (UTC).

Settles by documented review of public evidence against these locked criteria; the reviewer is named and the reasoning published.

The original wording did not settle the timing on its own. The reading above was chosen at registration and locked with the claim — it was not decided after the fact.