Gary Marcus: “If there exist AI systems that can perform 8 of the 10 tasks below by the end of 2027, as determined by our panel of judges, Gary will donate $2,000 to a charity of Miles’ choice; if AI can do fewer than 8, Miles will donate $20,000 to a charity of Gary’s choice.”

MET if The panel of judges mutually agreed by Gary Marcus and Miles Brundage determines that AI systems existed by the end of 2027 that can perform at least 8 of the 10 tasks listed in the 30 December 2024 post (movie comprehension, novel comprehension, biographies/obituaries, video-game mastery, legal briefs, 10,000+ line bug-free code, Pulitzer-caliber books, Oscar-caliber screenplays, Nobel-caliber discoveries, formalization of math proofs), where tasks need not have been actually attempted commercially but must be technically feasible with modest per-task cost (roughly $1 million of compute plus 10 person-weeks), and where the tasks are not performed by 10 completely separate bespoke systems. at any point, before 2027-12-31 23:59 (UTC).

The original wording did not settle the timing on its own. The reading above was chosen at registration and locked with the claim — it was not decided after the fact.

Settled by the determination of the mutually agreed panel of judges described in the post: if the panel finds that AI systems capable of performing at least 8 of the 10 listed tasks existed (or were technically feasible at ~$1M compute + 10 person-weeks per task) by 31 December 2027, the claim resolves true; if the panel finds fewer than 8 tasks met, it resolves false. Judges may take months after the deadline to render the decision.

Thonest does not settle this one automatically — there is no supported data source for it. The test is fixed all the same, so anyone can check it and nobody can change what counts.