Loading…
Nuño Sempere called it:
“Our forecasters’ aggregate estimate for the number of confirmed Bundibugyo ebolavirus deaths reported by the end of 2026 is 5.1K to 42K, with a 50th percentile point at 12.8K.”
We find out by Dec 31, 2026. 100 days to go · on the record 31 days, before anyone knew the answer
MET if (Cumulative confirmed Bundibugyo ebolavirus deaths reported globally as of December 31, 2026 (WHO or national health ministry figures) and Cumulative confirmed Bundibugyo ebolavirus deaths reported globally as of December 31, 2026 (WHO or national health ministry figures)) on the deadline date, before 2026-12-31 23:59 (UTC).
Settles by documented review of public evidence against these locked criteria; the reviewer is named and the reasoning published.
The original wording did not settle the timing on its own. The reading above was chosen at registration and locked with the claim — it was not decided after the fact.
Resolves YES if the cumulative number of confirmed Bundibugyo ebolavirus deaths reported globally as of December 31, 2026 is at least 5,100 and at most 42,000, per WHO or national health ministry reporting.
Quote verified against the source
Added by Thonest from a public source. The person quoted did not submit, approve, or endorse this record; the wording is verified against the source itself.
History — append-only
Proof
Disputes
No disputes have been filed. If something here is wrong — a misquote, a wrong date, a misattributed source — say so and it gets answered on the record. How disputes work.
Related
Reactions are about the record being worth keeping — never about whether the person was right. They are never counted for or against anyone, and never used to rank anything.
Discussion
Loading…
Weekly Sentinel global risk brief, Biorisk section, following a reported cumulative Ebola death toll of 2327.
✓ The anchored proof cannot be rewritten, and the published record is append-only by default. Everything that happened afterward is in the history above — corrections are appended, never silently edited in.
The check runs in your browser and reads the anchored root straight from a public Base node — not from Thonest. How this works.