Nuño Sempere called it:
“Our forecasters’ aggregate estimate for the number of confirmed Bundibugyo ebolavirus deaths reported by the end of 2026 is 5.1K to 42K, with a 50th percentile point at 12.8K.”
We find out by Dec 31, 2026. 132 days to go
Nuño Sempere: “Our forecasters’ aggregate estimate for the number of confirmed Bundibugyo ebolavirus deaths reported by the end of 2026 is 5.1K to 42K, with a 50th percentile point at 12.8K.”
MET if (Cumulative confirmed Bundibugyo ebolavirus deaths reported globally as of December 31, 2026 (WHO or national health ministry figures) and Cumulative confirmed Bundibugyo ebolavirus deaths reported globally as of December 31, 2026 (WHO or national health ministry figures)) on the deadline date, before 2026-12-31 23:59 (UTC).
Settles by documented review of public evidence against these locked criteria; the reviewer is named and the reasoning published.
The original wording did not settle the timing on its own. The reading above was chosen at registration and locked with the claim — it was not decided after the fact.
Test details
Resolves YES if the cumulative number of confirmed Bundibugyo ebolavirus deaths reported globally as of December 31, 2026 is at least 5,100 and at most 42,000, per WHO or national health ministry reporting.
Quote verified against the source
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Read the original on blog.sentinel-team.org ↗
Weekly Sentinel global risk brief, Biorisk section, following a reported cumulative Ebola death toll of 2327.
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