Jakob Nielsen called it:
“By the end of 2027 , AI will complete tasks that take a human two months, doing so in perhaps an hour while consuming roughly $100 worth of compute.”
We find out by Dec 31, 2027. 491 days to go
Jakob Nielsen: “By the end of 2027 , AI will complete tasks that take a human two months, doing so in perhaps an hour while consuming roughly $100 worth of compute.”
MET if A published time-horizon evaluation (METR or equivalent methodology) reports a frontier AI model autonomously completing tasks that require at least two months (measured in months of human work time) of human effort at any point, before 2027-12-31 23:59 (UTC).
Settles by documented review of public evidence against these locked criteria; the reviewer is named and the reasoning published.
Test details
Settled true if, on or before 2027-12-31, a published time-horizon evaluation (METR or equivalent) reports a frontier AI model autonomously completing tasks requiring at least two months of human work time. The 'one hour' and '$100 of compute' details are not part of the test.
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Prediction 1 of Nielsen's 18 predictions for 2026, extending the METR task-horizon doubling trend beyond 2026.
History — append-only
Proof
2 hashes from this record to the anchored root
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- 0x211d35888d1b2c43a5059b9e3094c0b97e7495b928a1d9603623ba7e63e4396b
batch #92 manifest · 4 entries
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