Nuño Sempere called it:
“Our forecasters think there’s a 5.2% (2% to 10%) chance that the US Senate will pause frontier AI development in the US before 2029, absent a treaty with China.”
We find out by Dec 31, 2028. 863 days to go
Nuño Sempere: “Our forecasters think there’s a 5.2% (2% to 10%) chance that the US Senate will pause frontier AI development in the US before 2029, absent a treaty with China.”
MET if (The US Senate passes binding legislation imposing a pause on frontier AI development in the United States (hearings, non-binding resolutions, and bills that fail to pass the Senate do not count) and not (A treaty or formal bilateral agreement between the United States and China governing AI development has entered into force)) at any point, before 2028-12-31 23:59 (UTC).
Settles by documented review of public evidence against these locked criteria; the reviewer is named and the reasoning published.
Test details
Resolves YES if, at any time before January 1, 2029, the US Senate passes binding legislation that pauses frontier AI development in the United States, and no US–China treaty or formal bilateral agreement on AI has entered into force at that time. Hearings, non-binding resolutions, and bills that do not pass the Senate do not count.
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Read the original on blog.sentinel-team.org ↗
Weekly Sentinel global risk brief, in the Technology and AI section responding to Senator Bernie Sanders' call for US tech companies to pause AI development.
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