Nate Silver called it:
“Democrats win the presidency in 2028.”
We find out by Dec 31, 2028. 857 days to go
Nate Silver: “Democrats win the presidency in 2028.”
MET if The Democratic Party's nominee wins the 2028 U.S. presidential election as determined by the certified Electoral College vote count on the deadline date, before 2028-12-31 23:59 (America/New_York).
Settles by documented review of public evidence against these locked criteria; the reviewer is named and the reasoning published.
Test details
Resolves YES if the Democratic Party nominee wins the 2028 U.S. presidential election, as determined by the certified Electoral College count. Resolves NO otherwise.
Quote verified against the source
Added by Thonest from a public source. The person quoted did not submit, approve, or endorse this record; the wording is verified against the source itself.
Read the original on natesilver.net ↗
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Fourth listed prediction in Silver's Jan 26, 2025 post, given 55% versus markets he describes as 50/50.
History — append-only
Proof
2 hashes from this record to the anchored root
- 0x78576592897747baab0922d95958443ca761a57889dc277fc95364389859d509
- 0x5e0dab47014b5cd774ecef35cab03a74c9991733463aeec4914acd7bb536fdf5
batch #100 manifest · 4 entries
the contract refuses any batch that doesn’t follow the previous one, and has no function to edit or delete one — including for us
0x69a4f885…f54b10 on block explorer
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