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Bryan Caplan called it:
“If the AI gets an A on at least 5 of out 6 of those exams using same grading scale as his students, then Bryan owes Matthew $500. Otherwise, Matthew owes Bryan $500. For the purpose of this bet, an A- counts as an A.”
We find out by Jan 30, 2029. 861 days to go · on the record 31 days, before anyone knew the answer
MET if (An AI selected by Matthew Barnett, given one attempt at each of Bryan Caplan's six most recent midterm exams, receives a grade of A or A- from Bryan Caplan on at least 5 of the 6 exams, graded on the same scale he applies to his students. Grades below A- do not count; multiple attempts on the same exam do not count; exams excluded by the agreed arbitrator are replaced by Caplan's most recent preceding midterm and not (More than four exams in total are excluded from the pool by the agreed arbitrator, calling off the bet and returning Barnett's $500)) at any point, before 2029-01-30 23:59 (America/New_York).
Settles by documented review of public evidence against these locked criteria; the reviewer is named and the reasoning published.
Settled by Bryan Caplan's published grading of the exams: if, on or before January 30, 2029, an AI selected by Matthew Barnett takes Caplan's six most recent midterm exams (one attempt each) and receives a grade of A or A- from Caplan on at least 5 of the 6, under the same grading scale applied to his students, the condition is TRUE and Caplan owes Barnett $500; otherwise FALSE. Exams excluded by the agreed arbitrator are replaced per the stated terms; if more than four exams in total are excluded the bet is called off and the claim does not resolve.
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Caplan lays out the agreed terms of his $500 bet with Matthew Barnett of Epoch AI about whether an AI can pass his economics midterms, with Caplan betting against.
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