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Nuño Sempere called it:
“Forecasters estimate that there is an aggregate 9.6% (5% to 15%) probability that a Google DeepMind model will be among the top 3 models at the end of 2026, according to Epoch’s capability index.”
We find out by Dec 31, 2026. 100 days to go · on the record 31 days, before anyone knew the answer
MET if At the end of 2026, at least one Google DeepMind model is listed among the top 3 models on Epoch AI's capability index on the deadline date, before 2026-12-31 23:59 (UTC).
Settles by documented review of public evidence against these locked criteria; the reviewer is named and the reasoning published.
The original wording did not settle the timing on its own. The reading above was chosen at registration and locked with the claim — it was not decided after the fact.
Resolves TRUE if, as of 31 December 2026, at least one Google DeepMind model is ranked among the top 3 on Epoch AI's capability index. Resolves FALSE otherwise.
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Stated in the Technology and AI section discussing Google DeepMind's slide in model rankings and high-level departures.
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