Nuño Sempere called it:
“Forecasters estimate that there is an aggregate 9.6% (5% to 15%) probability that a Google DeepMind model will be among the top 3 models at the end of 2026, according to Epoch’s capability index.”
We find out by Dec 31, 2026. 132 days to go
Nuño Sempere: “Forecasters estimate that there is an aggregate 9.6% (5% to 15%) probability that a Google DeepMind model will be among the top 3 models at the end of 2026, according to Epoch’s capability index.”
MET if At the end of 2026, at least one Google DeepMind model is listed among the top 3 models on Epoch AI's capability index on the deadline date, before 2026-12-31 23:59 (UTC).
Settles by documented review of public evidence against these locked criteria; the reviewer is named and the reasoning published.
The original wording did not settle the timing on its own. The reading above was chosen at registration and locked with the claim — it was not decided after the fact.
Test details
Resolves TRUE if, as of 31 December 2026, at least one Google DeepMind model is ranked among the top 3 on Epoch AI's capability index. Resolves FALSE otherwise.
Quote only partially matches the source
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Read the original on blog.sentinel-team.org ↗
Stated in the Technology and AI section discussing Google DeepMind's slide in model rankings and high-level departures.
History — append-only
Proof
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- 0x538c413c295ed92be5166bedbb8b18dddd366440b39e131cdb99ab43692bda96
batch #64 manifest · 4 entries
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