Steve Newman called it:
“More precisely: there will be no unusual physical or economic catastrophe (dramatically larger than past incidents of a similar nature) in which AI plays a crucial enabling role.”
We find out by Dec 31, 2026. 127 days to go
Steve Newman: “More precisely: there will be no unusual physical or economic catastrophe (dramatically larger than past incidents of a similar nature) in which AI plays a crucial enabling role.”
MET if not (A physical or economic catastrophe occurring in calendar 2026 that is dramatically larger than past incidents of a similar nature (e.g. bio, chemical or cyber attack) and in which AI played a crucial enabling role. Events merely blamed on AI without evidence of a crucial enabling role, and layoffs or ordinary business decisions attributed to AI, do not count) in every period, before 2026-12-31 23:59 (UTC).
Settles by documented review of public evidence against these locked criteria; the reviewer is named and the reasoning published.
The original wording did not settle the timing on its own. The reading above was chosen at registration and locked with the claim — it was not decided after the fact.
Test details
Settles FALSE if, at any point during calendar year 2026, a physical or economic catastrophe occurs that is dramatically larger than past incidents of a similar nature (for example an unusually impactful biological, chemical, or cyber attack) and in which AI played a crucial enabling role, as established by official investigations or reputable press. Settles TRUE if no such event occurs during 2026.
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Prediction #7 (90% confidence) in the guest section on AI catastrophe risk in 2026.
History — append-only
Proof
2 hashes from this record to the anchored root
- 0x58de99c986e358212243cd08a9eb52657e3c7b3cffb14d919d130dbbcc1a5d6b
- 0xa496bc3345918f982dd021c7c5f4d9027e061bae11b534512fb905368f4fccf9
batch #77 manifest · 4 entries
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0xbb914632…5aff71 on block explorer
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