Open until 2027-12-31 — 499 days away. Settlement rests on public evidence, gathered and checked after the deadline.
Gary Marcus: “We won’t get to AGI in 2026 (or 7).”
“We won’t get to AGI in 2026 (or 7).”
MET if not (An AI system is publicly released or announced and is broadly recognized across reputable technical press and major AI labs as artificial general intelligence — i.e., matching or exceeding competent human performance across essentially the full range of cognitive tasks. Narrow benchmark records, marketing claims by a single vendor, and internal unreleased demos do not count.) in every period, before 2027-12-31 23:59 (America/New_York).
The original wording did not settle the timing on its own. The reading above was chosen at registration and locked with the claim — it was not decided after the fact.
Resolves TRUE if, at no point between January 1, 2026 and December 31, 2027, an AI system is announced and broadly recognized in reputable technical press and by major AI labs as constituting artificial general intelligence (a system matching or exceeding competent human performance across essentially the full range of cognitive tasks, not merely benchmark wins in narrow domains). Resolves FALSE if such a system is announced and that recognition is widespread.
Thonest does not settle this one automatically — there is no supported data source for it. The test is fixed all the same, so anyone can check it and nobody can change what counts.
Quote verified against the source
Read the original on Substack ↗
First of Gary Marcus's list of six-or-seven predictions for AI in 2026, published on his Substack on December 20, 2025.
Resolution criteria
Resolves TRUE if, at no point between January 1, 2026 and December 31, 2027, an AI system is announced and broadly recognized in reputable technical press and by major AI labs as constituting artificial general intelligence (a system matching or exceeding competent human performance across essentially the full range of cognitive tasks, not merely benchmark wins in narrow domains). Resolves FALSE if such a system is announced and that recognition is widespread.
History — append-only
Proof
2 hashes from this record to the anchored root
- 0x2b41500b2c14413f5b71aecb457ca7272ed4b47c7d3c101b98f39dfd7de3724b
- 0x15648dad0ad48ea0c414f68e7b88a12ca533cb4e306b1fb84062f038f2731760
batch #20 manifest · 4 entries
the contract refuses any batch that doesn’t follow the previous one, and has no function to edit or delete one — including for us
0xc6ce79b1…2926af on block explorer
view the raw response · the page as served to us, kept verbatim and covered by the evidence hash
✓ The original record is immutable. Everything that happened afterward is in the history above — nothing is ever silently edited.
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Disputes
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