Abi Olvera called it:
“Specifically, I predict that news mentions of “AI” and “suicide” in media databases will be at least three times higher in 2026 than in 2025.”
We find out by Dec 31, 2026. 127 days to go
Abi Olvera: “Specifically, I predict that news mentions of “AI” and “suicide” in media databases will be at least three times higher in 2026 than in 2025.”
MET if Ratio of calendar-2026 to calendar-2025 counts of news items mentioning both 'AI' and 'suicide' in a standard media database is at least 3 on the deadline date, before 2026-12-31 23:59 (UTC).
Settles by documented review of public evidence against these locked criteria; the reviewer is named and the reasoning published.
The original wording did not settle the timing on its own. The reading above was chosen at registration and locked with the claim — it was not decided after the fact.
Test details
Settles TRUE if the count of news items mentioning both 'AI' and 'suicide' in a media database (e.g. Nexis/Factiva) for calendar 2026 is at least three times the corresponding count for calendar 2025. Settles FALSE if the 2026 count is less than three times the 2025 count.
Quote verified against the source
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Prediction #14 (85% confidence), headed 'News coverage linking AI to suicide will triple — but actual suicides will not'.
History — append-only
Proof
2 hashes from this record to the anchored root
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- 0x3029d0207bba840184be44d2e6f5fbce7d45dcfd0859e6f36c04c70049ff162d
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