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Timothy B. Lee called it:
“I don’t expect Big Tech’s capital spending to grow as much in 2026 as it did in 2025, but I do expect it to grow, ultimately exceeding $500 billion for the year.”
We find out by Dec 31, 2026. 100 days to go · on the record 31 days, before anyone knew the answer
MET if Combined capital expenditures for calendar year 2026 of Google/Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon, Meta and Oracle, as reported in those companies' own quarterly and annual financial filings, exceed $500 billion in aggregate. Announced or pledged future spending that is not booked as capital expenditure does not count on the deadline date, before 2026-12-31 23:59 (UTC).
Settles by documented review of public evidence against these locked criteria; the reviewer is named and the reasoning published.
The original wording did not settle the timing on its own. The reading above was chosen at registration and locked with the claim — it was not decided after the fact.
Settles TRUE if the combined calendar-year 2026 capital expenditures of the five hyperscalers the author names — Google/Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon, Meta and Oracle — as reported in those companies' own financial filings, exceed $500 billion in total. Otherwise FALSE.
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Prediction #1 in Understanding AI's year-end '17 predictions for AI in 2026' post, published Dec 31, 2025, with a stated 75% confidence.
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