People

Whose record.

Public prediction track records — the exact words, the locked test, and what happened. No scores, no rankings. Yours missing? Put a call on the record.

Peter Wildeford
Forecaster and author, The Power Law
Running this, I get a 4% chance that there will be more than 5 cases from people outside those on the…
Next call settles Aug 31, 2026
Justin Kompf
The Fed will maintain the interest rate in their September decision
Next call settles Sep 16, 2026
Timothy B. Lee
Author, Understanding AI
Counterpoint: Sora will have more active users than Vibes in a year (65%)
Next call settles Sep 30, 2026
Charles Ryan
Byron Donalds will be elected Governor of Florida on November 3, 2026, becoming Florida’s next governor.
Next call settles Nov 3, 2026
Gary Marcus
AI researcher and author; critic of large language models
If there exist AI systems that can perform 8 of the 10 tasks below by the end of 2027, as determined by our…
Next call settles Nov 3, 2026
Arthur Hayes
Co-founder, BitMEX; CIO, Maelstrom
My rough target price for Ether by the end of 2026 is $5,000, which is ~2.6x up from current levels.
Next call settles Dec 31, 2026
Benjamin Cowen
Founder, Into The Cryptoverse
In fact, I would argue that the more likely scenario is that 2026 is a red year for BTC while the ISM goes…
Next call settles Dec 31, 2026
Nuño Sempere
Superforecaster; Head of Foresight, Sentinel
Our forecasters’ aggregate estimate for the number of confirmed Bundibugyo ebolavirus deaths reported by the…
Next call settles Dec 31, 2026
Sam Ryan
AOC will be president in 2028.
Next call settles Dec 31, 2026
PlanB
Creator of the Bitcoin Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model
Of course bitcoin can still drop below realized price ($53k), like it did in every bear market bottom. But…
Next call settles Dec 31, 2028
Bryan Caplan
Professor of Economics, George Mason University; author of Bet On It
If the AI gets an A on at least 5 of out 6 of those exams using same grading scale as his students, then…
Next call settles Jan 30, 2029
Balaji Srinivasan
Investor, former CTO of Coinbase
I will take that bet. You buy 1 BTC. I will send $1M USD. This is ~40:1 odds as 1 BTC is worth ~$26k. The…
On the record, dated and unedited
Brian Armstrong
by 2030 I think it's very likely we'll see a 300,000 and 400,000 dollar Bitcoin
On the record, dated and unedited
Ethan Wu
the Bank of Japan, the central bank, will hike again to 1.25% sometime later this year
On the record, dated and unedited
Jon Brooks
We're seeing foreclosures jump across the board, right, 39.69%
On the record, dated and unedited
Ki Young Ju
Founder & CEO, CryptoQuant
#Bitcoin cycle theory is dead. My predictions were based on it—buy when whales accumulate, sell when retail…
On the record, dated and unedited
Peter Brandt
Veteran commodity trader and market analyst, Factor LLC
I think precious metals are closer to a bottom price-wise; I think Bitcoin may be closer to a bottom time-wise
On the record, dated and unedited
Professor Jiang Xueqin
the Al-Aqsa Mosque is destroyed.
On the record, dated and unedited
Rob Hadick
I expect a good 2026. For token prices like Bitcoin and Ethereum, there's likely to be continued momentum…
On the record, dated and unedited
Tom Lee
So I think in next year is really when Bitcoin can sort of begin to recover and the 200,000 level makes a…
On the record, dated and unedited