Peter Wildeford: “My assessment is that there’s roughly a 30% chance of a significant AI-driven market correction with at least a >20% drawdown in AI-heavy stocks, sometime within the next three years.”

MET if A significant AI-driven market correction in which AI-heavy stocks fall more than 20% peak-to-trough: a decline of more than 20% from a prior peak in a widely followed AI-focused equity benchmark (an AI/semiconductor index, or a market-cap-weighted basket of leading AI infrastructure names such as NVIDIA, Microsoft, AMD, Broadcom and Oracle), described by reputable financial press as an AI-driven correction/repricing. Declines of 20% or less do not count; drawdowns driven by causes unrelated to AI expectations do not count at any point, before 2028-10-29 23:59 (UTC).

Settles by documented review of public evidence against these locked criteria; the reviewer is named and the reasoning published.

The original wording did not settle the timing on its own. The reading above was chosen at registration and locked with the claim — it was not decided after the fact.