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Nate Silver called it:
“Democrats win the House in the 2026 midterms.”
We find out by Jan 3, 2027. 103 days to go · on the record 26 days, before anyone knew the answer
MET if Democrats win a majority of U.S. House seats in the November 2026 general election, as reflected in official certified results and the party breakdown of the House at the seating of the 120th Congress. Democratic control achieved only later via mid-term special elections or party switches does not count on the deadline date, before 2027-01-03 23:59 (America/New_York).
Settles by documented review of public evidence against these locked criteria; the reviewer is named and the reasoning published.
Resolves YES if, following the November 2026 general election, the Democratic Party holds a majority of seats in the U.S. House of Representatives as seated for the 120th Congress (per official certified results / House Clerk records). Resolves NO otherwise.
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First item in Nate Silver's Jan 26, 2025 post '113 predictions for Trump's second term', listed under 'Baseline political outcomes' with an 85% probability.
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