Open until 2026-12-31 — 134 days away. Settlement rests on public evidence, gathered and checked after the deadline.
Gary Marcus: “Human domestic robots like Optimus and Figure will be all demo and very little product.”
“Human domestic robots like Optimus and Figure will be all demo and very little product.”
MET if not (Tesla (Optimus) or Figure AI begins general commercial sales or leases of a humanoid domestic robot to non-employee consumers for use in private homes, with units actually delivered. Demos, teleoperated showcases, industrial/warehouse deployments, developer kits and press units do not count.) in every period, before 2026-12-31 23:59 (America/New_York).
The original wording did not settle the timing on its own. The reading above was chosen at registration and locked with the claim — it was not decided after the fact.
Resolves TRUE if, through December 31, 2026, neither Tesla (Optimus) nor Figure AI begins general commercial sales or leases of a humanoid robot to non-employee consumers for use in private homes. Staged demonstrations, lab or factory deployments, teleoperated demos, developer/partner units, and press loaners do not count as product. Resolves FALSE if either company opens general consumer ordering and delivers home-use units to ordinary buyers during 2026.
Thonest does not settle this one automatically — there is no supported data source for it. The test is fixed all the same, so anyone can check it and nobody can change what counts.
Quote verified against the source
Read the original on Substack ↗
Second of Marcus's 2026 predictions, citing damning reviews of an early humanoid prototype by Joanna Stern and Marques Brownlee.
Resolution criteria
Resolves TRUE if, through December 31, 2026, neither Tesla (Optimus) nor Figure AI begins general commercial sales or leases of a humanoid robot to non-employee consumers for use in private homes. Staged demonstrations, lab or factory deployments, teleoperated demos, developer/partner units, and press loaners do not count as product. Resolves FALSE if either company opens general consumer ordering and delivers home-use units to ordinary buyers during 2026.
History — append-only
Proof
2 hashes from this record to the anchored root
- 0xac11ad237d581b333c856c707d9989ae084b9b5f54489cc3181edbc547c3b8ff
- 0x87a003e0ac9df0874673d44166eafc1efe65a68a33fa7aacee4ef85a28d6a86d
batch #21 manifest · 4 entries
the contract refuses any batch that doesn’t follow the previous one, and has no function to edit or delete one — including for us
0x1953812d…2d6d8c on block explorer
view the raw response · the page as served to us, kept verbatim and covered by the evidence hash
✓ The original record is immutable. Everything that happened afterward is in the history above — nothing is ever silently edited.
The check runs in your browser and reads the anchored root straight from a public Base node — not from Thonest. How this works.
Disputes
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