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Gary Marcus called it:
“Human domestic robots like Optimus and Figure will be all demo and very little product.”
We find out by Dec 31, 2026. 100 days to go · on the record 34 days, before anyone knew the answer
MET if not (Tesla (Optimus) or Figure AI begins general commercial sales or leases of a humanoid domestic robot to non-employee consumers for use in private homes, with units actually delivered. Demos, teleoperated showcases, industrial/warehouse deployments, developer kits and press units do not count.) in every period, before 2026-12-31 23:59 (America/New_York).
Settles by documented review of public evidence against these locked criteria; the reviewer is named and the reasoning published.
The original wording did not settle the timing on its own. The reading above was chosen at registration and locked with the claim — it was not decided after the fact.
Resolves TRUE if, through December 31, 2026, neither Tesla (Optimus) nor Figure AI begins general commercial sales or leases of a humanoid robot to non-employee consumers for use in private homes. Staged demonstrations, lab or factory deployments, teleoperated demos, developer/partner units, and press loaners do not count as product. Resolves FALSE if either company opens general consumer ordering and delivers home-use units to ordinary buyers during 2026.
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Second of Marcus's 2026 predictions, citing damning reviews of an early humanoid prototype by Joanna Stern and Marques Brownlee.
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