Nate Silver called it:
“Democrats win the Senate in 2026”
We find out by Jan 3, 2027. 129 days to go
Nate Silver: “Democrats win the Senate in 2026”
MET if Democrats control the U.S. Senate as seated for the 120th Congress following the November 2026 elections (majority of seats, counting independents who caucus with Democrats and the Vice President's tie-breaking vote) on the deadline date, before 2027-01-03 23:59 (America/New_York).
Settles by documented review of public evidence against these locked criteria; the reviewer is named and the reasoning published.
Test details
Resolves YES if, following the November 2026 general election, Democrats (including independents caucusing with them) hold control of the U.S. Senate as seated for the 120th Congress, counting the Vice President's tie-breaking vote where applicable. Resolves NO otherwise.
Quote verified against the source
Added by Thonest from a public source. The person quoted did not submit, approve, or endorse this record; the wording is verified against the source itself.
Read the original on natesilver.net ↗
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Third listed prediction in Silver's '113 predictions for Trump's second term', assigned 15%.
History — append-only
Proof
2 hashes from this record to the anchored root
- 0x74476eb9fb1c73a920a30198aaba8178323eab1df5fdf428af369eb8700bbdde
- 0xc48008a4a97cf890d510b199e5bfffa161ef760a1b5586a9ea73a7fdf2fb7b2e
batch #99 manifest · 4 entries
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0x2ad80cfe…8507e8 on block explorer
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