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Jakob Nielsen called it:
“By the end of 2026, AI will likely perform tasks that take a human 39 hours which is more than a full work week when you account for meetings and other non-task activities.”
We find out by Dec 31, 2026. 100 days to go · on the record 26 days, before anyone knew the answer
MET if A published time-horizon evaluation (METR or equivalent methodology) reports a frontier AI model autonomously completing tasks that require at least 39 hours of human expert time. Human-assisted or multi-step human-in-the-loop workflows do not count at any point, before 2026-12-31 23:59 (UTC).
Settles by documented review of public evidence against these locked criteria; the reviewer is named and the reasoning published.
Settled true if, on or before 2026-12-31, METR (or an equivalent published time-horizon evaluation) reports a frontier AI model able to autonomously complete tasks requiring at least 39 hours of human expert time. Otherwise false.
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Prediction 1 ('Accelerating Relentless Change') in Nielsen's annual list of 18 predictions for 2026, extrapolating METR's AI task-duration horizon data.
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