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Nuño Sempere called it:
“Our forecasters’ 90% confidence interval for the largest number of deaths (civilian and/or military) that Russia will inflict in a NATO country in a single incident before August 15, 2027 is 0 to 20, with the 50th percentile- falling between zero and one deaths.”
We find out by Aug 15, 2027. 327 days to go · on the record 31 days, before anyone knew the answer
MET if The largest number of deaths (civilian and/or military) inflicted by Russia in a single incident on the territory of a NATO member country between August 17, 2026 and August 15, 2027 on the deadline date, before 2027-08-15 23:59 (UTC).
Settles by documented review of public evidence against these locked criteria; the reviewer is named and the reasoning published.
The original wording did not settle the timing on its own. The reading above was chosen at registration and locked with the claim — it was not decided after the fact.
Resolves YES if, over the period from August 17, 2026 through August 15, 2027, no single incident attributed to Russia in a NATO member country causes more than 20 deaths (civilian and/or military combined), as reported by official government sources of the affected NATO state.
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Weekly Sentinel global risk brief, Europe section, following reports of a thwarted Russian assassination plot in Warsaw and drone incursions into NATO states.
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