2026 predictions: 29 that settle on December 31, 2026

“In fact, I would argue that the more likely scenario is that 2026 is a red year for BTC while the ISM goes up, exactly like how it played out more than a decade ago.”

“Human domestic robots like Optimus and Figure will be all demo and very little product.”

“No country will take a decisive lead in the GenAI “race””

“I don’t expect Big Tech’s capital spending to grow as much in 2026 as it did in 2025, but I do expect it to grow, ultimately exceeding $500 billion for the year.”

“I expect the same will be true for Tesla — the first truly driverless Robotaxis will arrive in 2026, but technical and logistical challenges will limit how rapidly they expand.”

“The first asks “Will WHO declare hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern before 2027?” — as of the time of writing, the median of community predictions is at 2% and I am currently forecasting 0.4%”

“Counterpoint: Sora will have more active users than Vibes in a year (65%)”

“My rough target price for Ether by the end of 2026 is $5,000, which is ~2.6x up from current levels.”

“Forecasters estimate that there is an aggregate 9.6% (5% to 15%) probability that a Google DeepMind model will be among the top 3 models at the end of 2026, according to Epoch’s capability index.”

“Our forecasters’ aggregate estimate for the number of confirmed Bundibugyo ebolavirus deaths reported by the end of 2026 is 5.1K to 42K, with a 50th percentile point at 12.8K.”

“Btw just because I dumped my entire $HYPE bag, doesn't mean I still don't have faith $HYPE will best $SOL by year end. Sometimes you gotta go down to go up.”

“More precisely: there will be no unusual physical or economic catastrophe (dramatically larger than past incidents of a similar nature) in which AI plays a crucial enabling role.”

“I predict that will change in 2026: you’ll be able to buy a car that’s capable of operating with no one behind the wheel — at least in some limited areas.”

“Specifically, I predict that news mentions of “AI” and “suicide” in media databases will be at least three times higher in 2026 than in 2025.”

“Unless we have some very major setbacks, SpaceX will demonstrate full reusability next year, catching both the booster and the ship and delivering over a hundred tons to a useful orbit.”

“By the end of 2026, AI will likely perform tasks that take a human 39 hours which is more than a full work week when you account for meetings and other non-task activities.”

“For some reason, the big AI labs haven’t released music models yet, but this is likely to happen in 2026.”

“Models like Flux, Ideogram, Leonardo, Midjourney, and Reve will likely be acquired by multimodal AI labs such as Google, Meta, OpenAI, and xAI.”

“In contrast, 2026 will see the release of the first breakout hit video game created entirely by a creator with no formal programming skills who built the entire game using natural language prompts.”

“In 2026, Anthropic will debut on public markets. It will be one of the biggest and most highly anticipated IPOs of all-time.”

“OpenAI, too, will eventually become a publicly traded company. But not in 2026.”

“Sam Altman will step aside as CEO of OpenAI.”

“One of the large global pharma companies will acquire one of the leading protein AI startups.”

“In 2026, details of SSI’s approach will finally leak to the public.”

“A judge rules that Google must spin out its ad exchange”

“By the end of 2026, expect Meta’s models to still fall short of state-of-the-art — and Mark Zuckerberg to shuffle his executive lineup again in response.”

“In 2026, look for a nation-state or group of cybercriminals to weaponize an LLM to cause significant damage, and give AI safety advocates the concrete evidence they’ve been looking for to push for stronger regulations on AI development.”

“Trump starts a legal fight with the European Union over tech regulation”

“Look for at least three Democrats to win House seats promising to stop the construction of data centers in their districts, or creating new protections for people who lose their jobs to automation.”