{"object":"list","total":22,"limit":25,"offset":0,"data":[{"id":"cmt0lejlj0003ie047caqkjn8","exact_wording":"The Fed will maintain the interest rate in their September decision","type":"prediction","capability":"evidence","outcome":"open","statement_at":"2026-08-19T21:17:28.374Z","captured_at":"2026-08-19T21:17:28.375Z","resolution_criteria":"Resolves TRUE if the Federal Open Market Committee, in the official policy statement issued at the conclusion of its September 2026 meeting (scheduled September 15-16, 2026), leaves the target range for the federal funds rate unchanged from the range in effect immediately before that meeting. Resolves FALSE if the statement announces any increase or decrease in the target range. The FOMC's own published statement is the settling document.","resolution_deadline":"2026-09-16T23:59:59.000Z","context_note":null,"evidence_hash":"0x374420768850e28d1e24a93456603b4b26412f8860adf9e3540df99c33398e73","speaker":{"id":"cmt0leji30000ie04617iu6yw","slug":"justin-kompf","kind":"person","name":"Justin Kompf","handle":"@justin","title":null,"claimed":true},"source":{"url":"https://thonest.vercel.app/@justin","kind":"document","outlet":"Thonest (self-recorded)","snapshot_hash":null,"captured_at":"2026-08-19T21:17:28.353Z"},"anchor":{"batch_no":18,"merkle_root":"0xfbd0e894800b3f7c550cb9c611d16c621a0f0f45ea85f205a695a26fc0607b0c","chain":"base-mainnet","txn_hash":"0x851b78273b0c0ca688b63595a86a8155933a77b6e7a810a454a6ac7defa927db","anchored_at":"2026-08-19T21:17:29.619Z"}},{"id":"cmt0j3zg70002jv04nvq5ujht","exact_wording":"AOC will be president in 2028.","type":"prediction","capability":"evidence","outcome":"open","statement_at":"2026-08-19T20:13:16.470Z","captured_at":"2026-08-19T20:13:16.471Z","resolution_criteria":"Resolves true if Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is the winner of the November 2028 United States presidential election, as established by the Electoral College result certified by Congress in January 2029, and is sworn in as President of the United States. Winning a party nomination, leading polls, or becoming president by any means other than election in the 2028 cycle does not count. Resolves false otherwise.","resolution_deadline":"2029-01-20T23:59:59.000Z","context_note":null,"evidence_hash":"0x60f7601374c8da210cf7c7f33229bf27b2c24654405cd3aabcc4b4ac8f12756d","speaker":{"id":"cmt08b0qv0002l504ftwdsacq","slug":"sam","kind":"person","name":"Sam","handle":"@sam","title":null,"claimed":true},"source":{"url":"https://thonest.vercel.app/@sam","kind":"document","outlet":"Thonest (self-recorded)","snapshot_hash":null,"captured_at":"2026-08-19T20:13:16.452Z"},"anchor":{"batch_no":17,"merkle_root":"0xd9186b368e67499cada8df2f6532b0e7c7cb768870040f8f83f380a28c1f307c","chain":"base-mainnet","txn_hash":"0x77d65e3465bd8eaed19bfacaa9e8b31a3b7a527e7c473c833371ab6b3a84c08e","anchored_at":"2026-08-19T20:13:17.277Z"}},{"id":"cmt08b0xz0005l5044h3l4wrt","exact_wording":"Bitcoin will reach 200k by the end of 2026.","type":"prediction","capability":"automatic","outcome":"open","statement_at":"2026-08-19T15:10:49.222Z","captured_at":"2026-08-19T15:10:49.224Z","resolution_criteria":"Resolves true if the Coinbase BTC-USD spot price trades at or above 200,000 USD at any point between 2026-08-19 and 2026-12-31 23:59:59 America/New_York inclusive. Otherwise false.","resolution_deadline":"2026-12-31T23:59:59.000Z","context_note":null,"evidence_hash":"0x680c4ac6100a60d7f6a5a87dd624cba6e654e847988efd99a4fb561927f1596d","speaker":{"id":"cmt08b0qv0002l504ftwdsacq","slug":"sam","kind":"person","name":"Sam","handle":"@sam","title":null,"claimed":true},"source":{"url":"https://thonest.vercel.app/@sam","kind":"document","outlet":"Thonest (self-recorded)","snapshot_hash":null,"captured_at":"2026-08-19T15:10:49.069Z"},"anchor":{"batch_no":3,"merkle_root":"0x17962a925cc9c3e791389f375a42f0406e25919ca42e0234b49fe028c878ba0f","chain":"base-mainnet","txn_hash":"0x8a6b01410a24d47b2068c3b8d69c1084367fc241d4d78f582a33e6e3cee0d341","anchored_at":"2026-08-19T17:21:42.232Z"}},{"id":"cmt0fiiz3000bjl0479jt6e5r","exact_wording":"I do not believe that somebody who goes all in on AI stocks right now will be very happy with that investment two, three years from now","type":"prediction","capability":"record_only","outcome":"open","statement_at":"2026-07-20T00:00:00.000Z","captured_at":"2026-08-19T18:32:36.495Z","resolution_criteria":null,"resolution_deadline":null,"context_note":"Brandt questioning whether the AI equity trade can keep climbing, saying he would instead split $10,000 between Bitcoin and precious metals.","evidence_hash":"0x31793690de2fbc9d0564f4484d06f11c8bb078d05e262dab1cc948939c2d957c","speaker":{"id":"cmt0esop70000ib051w98ygxg","slug":"peter-brandt","kind":"person","name":"Peter Brandt","handle":"@PeterLBrandt","title":"Veteran commodity trader and market analyst, Factor LLC","claimed":false},"source":{"url":"https://cointelegraph.com/magazine/peter-brandt-says-bitcoins-bear-market-isnt-over-predicts-final-bottom-in-october","kind":"article","outlet":"Cointelegraph Magazine (Trade Secrets interview)","snapshot_hash":null,"captured_at":"2026-08-19T18:32:36.447Z"},"anchor":{"batch_no":10,"merkle_root":"0x9477a933d5ad0f926d6b9d9b75d1d838730a34771ab5771ddc1c6b124cf8aa62","chain":"base-mainnet","txn_hash":"0xdb185e3683b41b86278602c36ece610279f2535dcdc16425e4a66563de92f679","anchored_at":"2026-08-19T18:32:37.239Z"}},{"id":"cmt0esor80003ib05rwbjecuo","exact_wording":"I'll go out on a limb and say we bottom on October 4th. So we'll see,","type":"prediction","capability":"record_only","outcome":"open","statement_at":"2026-07-20T00:00:00.000Z","captured_at":"2026-08-19T18:12:30.932Z","resolution_criteria":null,"resolution_deadline":null,"context_note":"Brandt told Cointelegraph in an interview for its Trade Secrets series that he had pinpointed the exact day in 2026 he expects Bitcoin to hit this cycle's bottom.","evidence_hash":"0x88b77f20eea0e3f42a15de543e307d8898fcdbe7d221b94001ad9b8789e1f342","speaker":{"id":"cmt0esop70000ib051w98ygxg","slug":"peter-brandt","kind":"person","name":"Peter Brandt","handle":"@PeterLBrandt","title":"Veteran commodity trader and market analyst, Factor LLC","claimed":false},"source":{"url":"https://cointelegraph.com/magazine/peter-brandt-says-bitcoins-bear-market-isnt-over-predicts-final-bottom-in-october","kind":"article","outlet":"Cointelegraph Magazine","snapshot_hash":null,"captured_at":"2026-08-19T18:12:30.879Z"},"anchor":{"batch_no":7,"merkle_root":"0x2aa9a54f9b44c6a17a7224fff9fe8ba3e3415e02d7e29ad42f99d21f88bb5dd4","chain":"base-mainnet","txn_hash":"0xab265e0dc7de6e55b5a407dcf34660dd270169670bd55167ecd8323c19b2f59a","anchored_at":"2026-08-19T18:12:31.966Z"}},{"id":"cmt0fj0j80002jr041k2ieqnq","exact_wording":"Right now it’s neutral [sentiment]. Markets don’t bottom on neutral sentiment. Markets bottom on panic and volume.","type":"position","capability":"record_only","outcome":"open","statement_at":"2026-07-20T00:00:00.000Z","captured_at":"2026-08-19T18:32:59.252Z","resolution_criteria":null,"resolution_deadline":null,"context_note":"Brandt explaining why he doubts Bitcoin's level around $60,000 is the cycle bottom.","evidence_hash":"0x3c410b6349bcce65e8815d00e10e8ce0d8d181f9ac2385606a1393f93ccc2154","speaker":{"id":"cmt0esop70000ib051w98ygxg","slug":"peter-brandt","kind":"person","name":"Peter Brandt","handle":"@PeterLBrandt","title":"Veteran commodity trader and market analyst, Factor LLC","claimed":false},"source":{"url":"https://cointelegraph.com/magazine/peter-brandt-says-bitcoins-bear-market-isnt-over-predicts-final-bottom-in-october","kind":"article","outlet":"Cointelegraph Magazine (Trade Secrets interview)","snapshot_hash":null,"captured_at":"2026-08-19T18:32:59.192Z"},"anchor":{"batch_no":11,"merkle_root":"0x510f3c07211573baa036e613d1b2fefc12a3eacb536e6cee8a3f27eeda410c9e","chain":"base-mainnet","txn_hash":"0xbb4b2f2579799f79e8f4da92260f3210fc4b5313bffc0f69c12bee4514dcb266","anchored_at":"2026-08-19T18:33:00.144Z"}},{"id":"cmt0fjhf1000ejr04z9uv54zn","exact_wording":"I think precious metals are closer to a bottom price-wise; I think Bitcoin may be closer to a bottom time-wise","type":"position","capability":"record_only","outcome":"open","statement_at":"2026-07-20T00:00:00.000Z","captured_at":"2026-08-19T18:33:21.134Z","resolution_criteria":null,"resolution_deadline":null,"context_note":"Brandt explaining how he would allocate $10,000 today, split 50% between Bitcoin and precious metals.","evidence_hash":"0x7b4739303f3af3a14087c50e0c8faf691e3a9a19f4a02d09e50430587f23c4a5","speaker":{"id":"cmt0esop70000ib051w98ygxg","slug":"peter-brandt","kind":"person","name":"Peter Brandt","handle":"@PeterLBrandt","title":"Veteran commodity trader and market analyst, Factor LLC","claimed":false},"source":{"url":"https://cointelegraph.com/magazine/peter-brandt-says-bitcoins-bear-market-isnt-over-predicts-final-bottom-in-october","kind":"article","outlet":"Cointelegraph Magazine (Trade Secrets interview)","snapshot_hash":null,"captured_at":"2026-08-19T18:33:21.091Z"},"anchor":{"batch_no":12,"merkle_root":"0x46fcf7451d9f9ea6788bee99885aaa7e2c15177a11e1604dd30b79a7641a3bb4","chain":"base-mainnet","txn_hash":"0xcd9822a1efb24a6ff577ee6191a34f910d6f92395866f0155e0595650488f2b0","anchored_at":"2026-08-19T18:33:21.630Z"}},{"id":"cmt0fi1yg0002jl04qe0p4ij2","exact_wording":"Whether it’s at these kinds of current levels, or we crash through and really blow people out and move into the 50s, possibly the high 40s...","type":"statement","capability":"record_only","outcome":"open","statement_at":"2026-07-20T00:00:00.000Z","captured_at":"2026-08-19T18:32:14.441Z","resolution_criteria":null,"resolution_deadline":null,"context_note":"Brandt describing where Bitcoin's cycle low might be set, with Bitcoin trading around $63,661 at publication.","evidence_hash":"0x9759d0746e9ad63815164c4107fb00a735380c481d4f88f652123545583bbf09","speaker":{"id":"cmt0esop70000ib051w98ygxg","slug":"peter-brandt","kind":"person","name":"Peter Brandt","handle":"@PeterLBrandt","title":"Veteran commodity trader and market analyst, Factor LLC","claimed":false},"source":{"url":"https://cointelegraph.com/magazine/peter-brandt-says-bitcoins-bear-market-isnt-over-predicts-final-bottom-in-october","kind":"article","outlet":"Cointelegraph Magazine (Trade Secrets interview)","snapshot_hash":null,"captured_at":"2026-08-19T18:32:14.374Z"},"anchor":{"batch_no":9,"merkle_root":"0xe5a5c95de2f01819b2ef86a866905d4301562c692694c62c71bb4688c8707e72","chain":"base-mainnet","txn_hash":"0xc532482f6ac26d6817fb7f116fa096886587b76c87af54e35b04c6186270e7e3","anchored_at":"2026-08-19T18:32:15.315Z"}},{"id":"cmt0gb5pz000wl404qvyd39mp","exact_wording":"Of course bitcoin can still drop below realized price ($53k), like it did in every bear market bottom.\n\nBut Oct $126k top was not the cycle top IMO. Based on stock-to-flow valuation, BTC could still go to $500k ($250k - $1m range) .. this cycle (2026-2028!\n\nPatience","type":"prediction","capability":"automatic","outcome":"open","statement_at":"2026-07-15T00:00:00.000Z","captured_at":"2026-08-19T18:54:52.343Z","resolution_criteria":"Resolves YES if the Coinbase BTC-USD spot price trades at or above $250,000 (the low end of the stated $250k-$1m stock-to-flow range) at any point from 2026-07-15 through 2028-12-31 23:59 UTC. Resolves NO if BTC-USD never reaches $250,000 in that window.","resolution_deadline":"2028-12-31T23:59:00.000Z","context_note":"Post on X in which PlanB argues the October 2025 $126k high was not the cycle top and restates his stock-to-flow price target range for the 2026-2028 cycle.","evidence_hash":"0x3a0b0556bed79214a987f10471d94f211b0bcf0ee0ae2465e05752403ae19487","speaker":{"id":"cmt0e4jtu0000jr04t3yx8y8k","slug":"planb","kind":"person","name":"PlanB","handle":"@100trillionUSD","title":"Creator of the Bitcoin Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model","claimed":false},"source":{"url":"https://x.com/100trillionUSD/status/2077457985882739110","kind":"x_post","outlet":"X (Twitter)","snapshot_hash":"0x66e40f257a1c33752a3772eb4504a5f37d32269cc6201338b9575580a0332e1d","captured_at":"2026-08-19T18:54:52.177Z"},"anchor":{"batch_no":16,"merkle_root":"0xc924b1a12f08fafd50d96b4bd2761ffd60e6e049a2bdead51feaab1fd07b1061","chain":"base-mainnet","txn_hash":"0x9a6402bd7f93ed71408c4b82fd7a7e244ac1172c5267ee1353aaf127a23607aa","anchored_at":"2026-08-19T18:54:53.538Z"}},{"id":"cmt0g9j120002l404addq50dh","exact_wording":"Bitcoin likely has another parabolic cycle ahead.\n\nYes, capital efficiency is declining. In 2011, just $2.7B in net capital inflows drove a 55,436% price increase. This cycle, $697B produced a +689% return.","type":"prediction","capability":"record_only","outcome":"open","statement_at":"2026-07-01T00:00:00.000Z","captured_at":"2026-08-19T18:53:36.279Z","resolution_criteria":null,"resolution_deadline":null,"context_note":"Post on X by CryptoQuant founder Ki Young Ju arguing Bitcoin's capital efficiency is falling but another parabolic cycle remains possible with deeper institutional allocation.","evidence_hash":"0x26ed83137620c63dcb87e623546c79c94bec05b7bd3ade66665f21ab52caad70","speaker":{"id":"cmt0eukzn000jib054hwyyvmc","slug":"ki-young-ju","kind":"person","name":"Ki Young Ju","handle":"@ki_young_ju","title":"Founder & CEO, CryptoQuant","claimed":false},"source":{"url":"https://x.com/ki_young_ju/status/2072203873041948713","kind":"x_post","outlet":"X (Twitter)","snapshot_hash":"0xcf2563a1f4e208eab69d29a8b942f0a119f7657c3707c2f50d3c5768698d517f","captured_at":"2026-08-19T18:53:36.259Z"},"anchor":{"batch_no":14,"merkle_root":"0xd7f606eb0b1e65d47c047b34a3ad740f57aababc644789b2dd2cc51f159327fc","chain":"base-mainnet","txn_hash":"0x8ca9989552d2f3a09dd15f8bf2a361f3db4f2eb04a5667e291a86d161a4c330d","anchored_at":"2026-08-19T18:53:37.271Z"}},{"id":"cmt0t0lsm0005ji043tez1gfn","exact_wording":"1. Some form of AI, probably neurosymbolic in nature, will come that is far more economical and data- and energy-efficient than LLMs, and it will make an absolute fortune.","type":"prediction","capability":"record_only","outcome":"open","statement_at":"2026-06-04T00:00:00.000Z","captured_at":"2026-08-20T00:50:34.967Z","resolution_criteria":null,"resolution_deadline":null,"context_note":"First of three numbered predictions posted by Gary Marcus on X about the future of AI architectures and the economics of LLMs.","evidence_hash":"0x41fc10cd0b596cdd90524cca6dc6b1c8898ae8a1abce3ef93808e2f8454b232c","speaker":{"id":"cmt0t0lql0000ji044gx41z04","slug":"gary-marcus","kind":"person","name":"Gary Marcus","handle":"@GaryMarcus","title":"AI researcher and author; critic of large language models","claimed":false},"source":{"url":"https://x.com/GaryMarcus/status/2062409773866455385","kind":"x_post","outlet":"X (Twitter)","snapshot_hash":"0x15c417d4b5f8739a62831020dcf518507717d8029f5423da8ed978e03e07a5ae","captured_at":"2026-08-20T00:50:34.949Z"},"anchor":{"batch_no":19,"merkle_root":"0x11b9c9e22887ea0d43d1fce3b29eaf68f80daf96fe9081dfd3aca3e39d8d4e59","chain":"base-mainnet","txn_hash":"0x866091b5a03dfc45556c8b178ab131a25e4c82030ec7b023938ec3ce62d407d8","anchored_at":"2026-08-20T00:50:35.637Z"}},{"id":"cmt0e7e0u000njj04xvw8smuz","exact_wording":"In fact, I would argue that the more likely scenario is that 2026 is a red year for BTC while the ISM goes up, exactly like how it played out more than a decade ago.","type":"prediction","capability":"evidence","outcome":"open","statement_at":"2026-06-04T00:00:00.000Z","captured_at":"2026-08-19T17:55:57.246Z","resolution_criteria":"Resolves TRUE if BOTH: (1) Bitcoin's USD price closes 2026 lower than it closed 2025 (Coinbase BTC-USD daily close on 2026-12-31 below the daily close on 2025-12-31), i.e. a negative calendar-year return; AND (2) the ISM Manufacturing PMI headline value for December 2026 (as published by the Institute for Supply Management) is higher than the ISM Manufacturing PMI headline value for December 2025. Resolves FALSE if either condition fails.","resolution_deadline":"2026-12-31T23:59:59.000Z","context_note":"Post on X in which Cowen lays out his view of the 2026 Bitcoin cycle alongside the ISM manufacturing index.","evidence_hash":"0x28828649aad1a59705cfa0da8646ee144c871aeef6318d889c14d8a9b4492196","speaker":{"id":"cmt0e7dq1000kjj04mzj5vu14","slug":"benjamin-cowen","kind":"person","name":"Benjamin Cowen","handle":"@benjamincowen","title":"Founder, Into The Cryptoverse","claimed":false},"source":{"url":"https://x.com/benjamincowen/status/2062641390778273939","kind":"x_post","outlet":"X (Twitter)","snapshot_hash":"0x23d8b9c2f9d99e1a385bb9b3fb1cf256e3762dd4010266b336e10bafecbc2485","captured_at":"2026-08-19T17:55:56.867Z"},"anchor":{"batch_no":6,"merkle_root":"0x9537170363db00c77e38e7fa29152354bd7c99b489dcbb1ffaf1adc2a08003d5","chain":"base-mainnet","txn_hash":"0xcab603f4299440d41fe3808d2271656a4dedd0a67ad056f4a740d6ed980057f8","anchored_at":"2026-08-19T17:55:57.815Z"}},{"id":"cmt0t7f3w000gjs04f7yxo718","exact_wording":"Human domestic robots like Optimus and Figure will be all demo and very little product.","type":"prediction","capability":"evidence","outcome":"open","statement_at":"2025-12-20T00:00:00.000Z","captured_at":"2026-08-20T00:55:52.892Z","resolution_criteria":"Resolves TRUE if, through December 31, 2026, neither Tesla (Optimus) nor Figure AI begins general commercial sales or leases of a humanoid robot to non-employee consumers for use in private homes. Staged demonstrations, lab or factory deployments, teleoperated demos, developer/partner units, and press loaners do not count as product. Resolves FALSE if either company opens general consumer ordering and delivers home-use units to ordinary buyers during 2026.","resolution_deadline":"2026-12-31T23:59:59.000Z","context_note":"Second of Marcus's 2026 predictions, citing damning reviews of an early humanoid prototype by Joanna Stern and Marques Brownlee.","evidence_hash":"0xb5d7a96c70681fd8a737f1526a4881ec8739f5a9757e9ebd021679cc72111dcd","speaker":{"id":"cmt0t0lql0000ji044gx41z04","slug":"gary-marcus","kind":"person","name":"Gary Marcus","handle":"@GaryMarcus","title":"AI researcher and author; critic of large language models","claimed":false},"source":{"url":"https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/six-or-seven-predictions-for-ai-2026","kind":"article","outlet":"Marcus on AI (Substack)","snapshot_hash":null,"captured_at":"2026-08-20T00:55:52.859Z"},"anchor":{"batch_no":21,"merkle_root":"0xb6148ec0508be0e06cbe796b5cf6d65b07bc6b45f5c60a87ad2ab1b824111e1e","chain":"base-mainnet","txn_hash":"0x1953812d45ed1a785852f276d9d0fd157978b99be604c4a982c7e5e9022d6d8c","anchored_at":"2026-08-20T00:55:53.424Z"}},{"id":"cmt0t7uch0002la04jlbbc0y8","exact_wording":"In the midterms, AI will be an election issue for first time.","type":"prediction","capability":"evidence","outcome":"open","statement_at":"2025-12-20T00:00:00.000Z","captured_at":"2026-08-20T00:56:12.641Z","resolution_criteria":"Resolves TRUE if, in the November 3, 2026 U.S. midterm elections, artificial intelligence policy (e.g., AI regulation, data centers, job displacement, deregulation preemption) is a substantive campaign issue — evidenced by AI-focused campaign advertising, candidate platform planks, or debate questions in multiple federal or statewide races, as documented by reputable national press. Resolves FALSE if no such substantive AI-policy campaigning is documented in multiple races.","resolution_deadline":"2026-11-03T23:59:59.000Z","context_note":"Part of Marcus's sixth 2026 prediction, about escalating backlash to generative AI and deregulation.","evidence_hash":"0x5691d0099ef62e1ae3e1644aaa48cd433780e3a6e00958c0c712208e3d490772","speaker":{"id":"cmt0t0lql0000ji044gx41z04","slug":"gary-marcus","kind":"person","name":"Gary Marcus","handle":"@GaryMarcus","title":"AI researcher and author; critic of large language models","claimed":false},"source":{"url":"https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/six-or-seven-predictions-for-ai-2026","kind":"article","outlet":"Marcus on AI (Substack)","snapshot_hash":null,"captured_at":"2026-08-20T00:56:12.585Z"},"anchor":{"batch_no":23,"merkle_root":"0xdbff3f44b6246b42ca027291ee6c083892554ada2a8637319c25b75596b6999d","chain":"base-mainnet","txn_hash":"0x70a44e0b0010f7f6245484f6e6e5df52cad6d52934572178edb85d1108a40231","anchored_at":"2026-08-20T00:56:13.575Z"}},{"id":"cmt0t77f70002js04qspb4j5a","exact_wording":"We won’t get to AGI in 2026 (or 7).","type":"prediction","capability":"evidence","outcome":"open","statement_at":"2025-12-20T00:00:00.000Z","captured_at":"2026-08-20T00:55:42.931Z","resolution_criteria":"Resolves TRUE if, at no point between January 1, 2026 and December 31, 2027, an AI system is announced and broadly recognized in reputable technical press and by major AI labs as constituting artificial general intelligence (a system matching or exceeding competent human performance across essentially the full range of cognitive tasks, not merely benchmark wins in narrow domains). Resolves FALSE if such a system is announced and that recognition is widespread.","resolution_deadline":"2027-12-31T23:59:59.000Z","context_note":"First of Gary Marcus's list of six-or-seven predictions for AI in 2026, published on his Substack on December 20, 2025.","evidence_hash":"0x0e17cd2ef33754c5f65c3367baca9a3950dbad379bfa47ce38d591e572acfa26","speaker":{"id":"cmt0t0lql0000ji044gx41z04","slug":"gary-marcus","kind":"person","name":"Gary Marcus","handle":"@GaryMarcus","title":"AI researcher and author; critic of large language models","claimed":false},"source":{"url":"https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/six-or-seven-predictions-for-ai-2026","kind":"article","outlet":"Marcus on AI (Substack)","snapshot_hash":null,"captured_at":"2026-08-20T00:55:42.872Z"},"anchor":{"batch_no":20,"merkle_root":"0xcb317d083ea59aba54f6088e8b8f7c4dbdc6f733872cc9b8a6ac9d4fff7cf9ce","chain":"base-mainnet","txn_hash":"0xc6ce79b123e345be053e93ab8b4ea6390346c33fbab43f9095eebea6332926af","anchored_at":"2026-08-20T00:55:44.480Z"}},{"id":"cmt0t7lsr000xjs045kwos68z","exact_wording":"No country will take a decisive lead in the GenAI “race”","type":"prediction","capability":"evidence","outcome":"open","statement_at":"2025-12-20T00:00:00.000Z","captured_at":"2026-08-20T00:56:01.564Z","resolution_criteria":"Resolves TRUE if, through December 31, 2026, no single country's generative AI models hold an uncontested top position — i.e., at year end the leading models on widely used public leaderboards and evaluations still include frontier systems from more than one country. Resolves FALSE if, by December 31, 2026, models originating from a single country occupy the top positions across major public evaluations with no near-peer competitor from another country, as reported by reputable technical press.","resolution_deadline":"2026-12-31T23:59:59.000Z","context_note":"Third of Marcus's 2026 predictions in his Substack post of December 20, 2025.","evidence_hash":"0xcdeb55f96cea36288b9677e36da57727c7204b266c33853e9918296c099c2eb7","speaker":{"id":"cmt0t0lql0000ji044gx41z04","slug":"gary-marcus","kind":"person","name":"Gary Marcus","handle":"@GaryMarcus","title":"AI researcher and author; critic of large language models","claimed":false},"source":{"url":"https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/six-or-seven-predictions-for-ai-2026","kind":"article","outlet":"Marcus on AI (Substack)","snapshot_hash":null,"captured_at":"2026-08-20T00:56:01.532Z"},"anchor":{"batch_no":22,"merkle_root":"0xe20882d5ba9fc0b9495d796b5eda8a81bd5c49cd0ae08a294c8318def36e9505","chain":"base-mainnet","txn_hash":"0xc81714d8ad4176d9c4af5a1d99a41c1e24236d8b7f60b1f3571a0fe85cc4e88f","anchored_at":"2026-08-20T00:56:03.425Z"}},{"id":"cmt0g9xrz000hl40485mltugk","exact_wording":"#Bitcoin cycle theory is dead.\n\nMy predictions were based on it—buy when whales accumulate, sell when retail joins. But that pattern no longer holds.","type":"position","capability":"record_only","outcome":"open","statement_at":"2025-07-24T00:00:00.000Z","captured_at":"2026-08-19T18:53:55.391Z","resolution_criteria":null,"resolution_deadline":null,"context_note":"Post on X in which the CryptoQuant founder publicly retracted the four-year Bitcoin cycle framework underlying his earlier market calls.","evidence_hash":"0x0d771d8e3ffe2accf0c5b6414ad686e4f9f62af4e5caf3dd801221ed3ba24675","speaker":{"id":"cmt0eukzn000jib054hwyyvmc","slug":"ki-young-ju","kind":"person","name":"Ki Young Ju","handle":"@ki_young_ju","title":"Founder & CEO, CryptoQuant","claimed":false},"source":{"url":"https://x.com/ki_young_ju/status/1948512682157519266","kind":"x_post","outlet":"X (Twitter)","snapshot_hash":null,"captured_at":"2026-08-19T18:53:55.381Z"},"anchor":{"batch_no":15,"merkle_root":"0x61107350a53ae8ccf3a7fca3585883b54dadff5cf33719a3ec809a857a56b79e","chain":"base-mainnet","txn_hash":"0xe6f215c3f88c90e781b440b71e953a2bde917b9fac85e872d7516718366567ec","anchored_at":"2026-08-19T18:53:55.943Z"}},{"id":"cmt0eul07000mib05i616n4xd","exact_wording":"#Bitcoin bull cycle is over — here's why.","type":"prediction","capability":"record_only","outcome":"open","statement_at":"2025-04-05T00:00:00.000Z","captured_at":"2026-08-19T18:13:59.383Z","resolution_criteria":null,"resolution_deadline":null,"context_note":"Closing paragraph of a long X post published April 5, 2025 in which the CryptoQuant CEO argued the Bitcoin bull cycle was over based on Realized Cap versus Market Cap divergence. Long post: X serves only a preview, so the platform corroborates the opening claim; the full thread text is preserved as submitted context. Ki Young Ju publicly retracted this call on 9 May 2025: \"Two months ago, I said the bull cycle was over, but I was wrong.\" (x.com/ki_young_ju/status/1920738436887310582)","evidence_hash":"0x0ca16386ad1ff08a30427266dec98f2ce74c3a8a2f7b0d0ae57f50552b0a85ba","speaker":{"id":"cmt0eukzn000jib054hwyyvmc","slug":"ki-young-ju","kind":"person","name":"Ki Young Ju","handle":"@ki_young_ju","title":"Founder & CEO, CryptoQuant","claimed":false},"source":{"url":"https://x.com/ki_young_ju/status/1908537068420304974","kind":"x_post","outlet":"X (Twitter)","snapshot_hash":"0x18673d025c9254cf91940520e9166dbacd0a36b172f97fe41f486a54f56bf0da","captured_at":"2026-08-19T18:13:59.373Z"},"anchor":{"batch_no":8,"merkle_root":"0x2da0df7112e6de68b8db2062b00c4e39725319fce658a33932ca8acae49d0152","chain":"base-mainnet","txn_hash":"0x7142c06214df491df1a78878068e123fe19f2618a080147578b93bbce305ad05","anchored_at":"2026-08-19T18:13:59.914Z"}},{"id":"cmt0g8qcu0002l804qaxml7gp","exact_wording":"#Bitcoin bull cycle is over, expecting 6–12 months of bearish or sideways price action.","type":"prediction","capability":"record_only","outcome":"open","statement_at":"2025-03-17T00:00:00.000Z","captured_at":"2026-08-19T18:52:59.119Z","resolution_criteria":null,"resolution_deadline":null,"context_note":"Post on X by CryptoQuant founder Ki Young Ju on March 17, 2025, accompanied by a chart, calling the end of the Bitcoin bull cycle. Ki Young Ju publicly retracted this call on 9 May 2025: \"Two months ago, I said the bull cycle was over, but I was wrong.\" (x.com/ki_young_ju/status/1920738436887310582)","evidence_hash":"0x13d03b4697dc4f6c0aff8dae8861ab5247a87455a21bf3957a7652c33d6b4e26","speaker":{"id":"cmt0eukzn000jib054hwyyvmc","slug":"ki-young-ju","kind":"person","name":"Ki Young Ju","handle":"@ki_young_ju","title":"Founder & CEO, CryptoQuant","claimed":false},"source":{"url":"https://x.com/ki_young_ju/status/1901776137715671191","kind":"x_post","outlet":"X (Twitter)","snapshot_hash":null,"captured_at":"2026-08-19T18:52:59.100Z"},"anchor":{"batch_no":13,"merkle_root":"0x1305dec810d2cbbbb017a535e54094f084e2404a61e155c98e8775d01657050e","chain":"base-mainnet","txn_hash":"0x6c0299eb1955b1af26bd85b969c562c644be67323ca9b70defd72b4eaf68bde0","anchored_at":"2026-08-19T18:52:59.789Z"}},{"id":"cmt0tboiw000gla04terwsloe","exact_wording":"If there exist AI systems that can perform 8 of the 10 tasks below by the end of 2027, as determined by our panel of judges, Gary will donate $2,000 to a charity of Miles’ choice; if AI can do fewer than 8, Miles will donate $20,000 to a charity of Gary’s choice.","type":"commitment","capability":"evidence","outcome":"open","statement_at":"2024-12-30T00:00:00.000Z","captured_at":"2026-08-20T00:59:11.720Z","resolution_criteria":"Settled by the determination of the mutually agreed panel of judges described in the post: if the panel finds that AI systems capable of performing at least 8 of the 10 listed tasks existed (or were technically feasible at ~$1M compute + 10 person-weeks per task) by 31 December 2027, the claim resolves true; if the panel finds fewer than 8 tasks met, it resolves false. Judges may take months after the deadline to render the decision.","resolution_deadline":"2027-12-31T23:59:59.000Z","context_note":"Joint Substack post by Gary Marcus and Miles Brundage announcing a 10:1 wager on the state of AI capabilities at the end of 2027. Terms of a public wager agreed between Gary Marcus and Miles Brundage, published on Marcus on AI. The record is held against Marcus, whose post states the terms; Brundage is the counterparty.","evidence_hash":"0xfffdce66e4bf3c9ac4bd52b342f0ff6a7370ce0697bc199d498274856d9b291b","speaker":{"id":"cmt0t0lql0000ji044gx41z04","slug":"gary-marcus","kind":"person","name":"Gary Marcus","handle":"@GaryMarcus","title":"AI researcher and author; critic of large language models","claimed":false},"source":{"url":"https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/where-will-ai-be-at-the-end-of-2027","kind":"article","outlet":"Marcus on AI (Substack)","snapshot_hash":null,"captured_at":"2026-08-20T00:59:11.676Z"},"anchor":{"batch_no":24,"merkle_root":"0x06a25d1984e2829d5d73861853ce35ffce3d807f5fd9e46a7b31d6833b66866a","chain":"base-mainnet","txn_hash":"0x3927819679b973f479f81025befbdc98961f5123397fb4bfe296b65ba5e5d14b","anchored_at":"2026-08-20T00:59:12.484Z"}},{"id":"cmt0e60vf0003jj04ng0vrsya","exact_wording":"I will take that bet.\nYou buy 1 BTC.\nI will send $1M USD.\nThis is ~40:1 odds as 1 BTC is worth ~$26k.\nThe term is 90 days.","type":"prediction","capability":"automatic","outcome":"not_met","statement_at":"2023-03-17T00:00:00.000Z","captured_at":"2026-08-19T17:54:53.547Z","resolution_criteria":"Resolves TRUE if the price of Bitcoin (Coinbase BTC-USD) trades at or above $1,000,000 at any point between March 17, 2023 and June 15, 2023 (90 days from the statement), inclusive. Otherwise FALSE.","resolution_deadline":"2023-06-15T23:59:59.000Z","context_note":"Balaji publicly accepted a wager on X on March 17, 2023, staking $1M USD against 1 BTC on a 90-day term amid his hyperinflation thesis.","evidence_hash":"0x1c5f8b3ab8983d38c1e06fa1549534988aac8c305cd814138a8e0e4cbce8cc13","speaker":{"id":"cmt0e60ph0000jj049pyx5rxh","slug":"balaji-srinivasan","kind":"person","name":"Balaji Srinivasan","handle":"@balajis","title":"Investor, former CTO of Coinbase","claimed":false},"source":{"url":"https://x.com/balajis/status/1636797265317867520","kind":"x_post","outlet":"X (Twitter)","snapshot_hash":"0xd15bcbbaa6033f31ae770249df214f7dc9cf85c6043fcf1884ddd3c893dff7e0","captured_at":"2026-08-19T17:54:53.354Z"},"anchor":{"batch_no":5,"merkle_root":"0x76e3da146b1d0cde673f79b21673e82f4b7094abd6d0b70a759159b80cb17c9c","chain":"base-mainnet","txn_hash":"0x2e96d6ea8af60b4f8cfe50a7a7c16dbd03eb93cf8760fbf41c12fbedf2f181fd","anchored_at":"2026-08-19T17:54:54.604Z"}},{"id":"cmt0e4k1j0003jr04oa2yqfuj","exact_wording":"no that is not true. s2f model is a simple linear regression. parameters, stats and bounds are in the article, everyone can replicate and verify. I will call s2f invalidated if we have not reached 100K by Dec this year, we can not stay at current levels for the rest of the year.","type":"prediction","capability":"automatic","outcome":"not_met","statement_at":"2021-06-23T00:00:00.000Z","captured_at":"2026-08-19T17:53:45.079Z","resolution_criteria":"Resolved TRUE if the Coinbase BTC-USD price reaches or exceeds 100,000 USD at any point between 23 June 2021 and 23:59 UTC on 31 December 2021. Resolved FALSE if BTC-USD never trades at or above 100,000 USD in that window. Settlement uses Coinbase BTC-USD daily high values.","resolution_deadline":"2021-12-31T23:59:59.000Z","context_note":"Posted on X on 23 June 2021 while defending the Stock-to-Flow model against criticism during a Bitcoin price drawdown.","evidence_hash":"0x3439605abc50ccc1e985091f102f1ab689165bba04768db11fd87dd384ae6258","speaker":{"id":"cmt0e4jtu0000jr04t3yx8y8k","slug":"planb","kind":"person","name":"PlanB","handle":"@100trillionUSD","title":"Creator of the Bitcoin Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model","claimed":false},"source":{"url":"https://twitter.com/100trillionUSD/status/1407634975051157506","kind":"x_post","outlet":"X (Twitter)","snapshot_hash":null,"captured_at":"2026-08-19T17:53:44.821Z"},"anchor":{"batch_no":4,"merkle_root":"0xcff60d537afd1a93683ccf0a5097dad299d871380128c3dd98f36ed2e80260b3","chain":"base-mainnet","txn_hash":"0x618de768360ed7f62506397ec0e7d2fd871e585de4029fbd3d1048a7060cdeb4","anchored_at":"2026-08-19T17:53:46.036Z"}}]}