The public record
Predictions on the record.
22 sourced statements, predictions and commitments — exact wording, original source, cryptographically anchored. Every record can be verified independently.
Resolving next
Open◎ Settles on evidenceSelf-registered
“The Fed will maintain the interest rate in their September decision”
Open◎ Settles on evidence
“In the midterms, AI will be an election issue for first time.”
Open◎ Settles on evidence
“In fact, I would argue that the more likely scenario is that 2026 is a red year for BTC while the ISM goes up, exactly like how it played out more than a decade ago.”
Open⚙ Settles automaticallySelf-registered
“Bitcoin will reach 200k by the end of 2026.”
Recently resolved
Condition not met⚙ Settles automaticallyHistorical — registered after the outcome
“I will take that bet. You buy 1 BTC. I will send $1M USD. This is ~40:1 odds as 1 BTC is worth ~$26k. The term is 90 days.”
Condition not met⚙ Settles automaticallyHistorical — registered after the outcome
“no that is not true. s2f model is a simple linear regression. parameters, stats and bounds are in the article, everyone can replicate and verify. I will call s2f invalidated if we have not reached 100K by Dec this year, we can not stay at current levels for the rest of the year.”
Just registered
Open◎ Settles on evidence
“If there exist AI systems that can perform 8 of the 10 tasks below by the end of 2027, as determined by our panel of judges, Gary will donate $2,000 to a charity of Miles’ choice; if AI can do fewer than 8, Miles will donate $20,000 to a charity of Gary’s choice.”
Open◎ Settles on evidence
“In the midterms, AI will be an election issue for first time.”
Open◎ Settles on evidence
“No country will take a decisive lead in the GenAI “race””
Open◎ Settles on evidence
“Human domestic robots like Optimus and Figure will be all demo and very little product.”
Open◎ Settles on evidence
“We won’t get to AGI in 2026 (or 7).”
Not scored🔒 Preserved — not scored
“1. Some form of AI, probably neurosymbolic in nature, will come that is far more economical and data- and energy-efficient than LLMs, and it will make an absolute fortune.”
Whose record