What they said, on the record.

101 records, each independently verifiable.

Casey NewtonFounder and editor, Platformer
Look for at least three Democrats to win House seats promising to stop the construction of data centers in their districts, or creating new protections for people who lose their jobs to automation.
Clock's ticking
125days leftSaid Dec 18, 2025Added to Thonest Aug 28, 2026
Casey NewtonFounder and editor, Platformer
Trump starts a legal fight with the European Union over tech regulation
Clock's ticking
125days leftSaid Dec 18, 2025Added to Thonest Aug 28, 2026
Casey NewtonFounder and editor, Platformer
In 2026, look for a nation-state or group of cybercriminals to weaponize an LLM to cause significant damage, and give AI safety advocates the concrete evidence they’ve been looking for to push for stronger regulations on AI development.
Clock's ticking
125days leftSaid Dec 18, 2025Added to Thonest Aug 28, 2026
Casey NewtonFounder and editor, Platformer
By the end of 2026, expect Meta’s models to still fall short of state-of-the-art — and Mark Zuckerberg to shuffle his executive lineup again in response.
Clock's ticking
125days leftSaid Dec 18, 2025Added to Thonest Aug 28, 2026
Casey NewtonFounder and editor, Platformer
A judge rules that Google must spin out its ad exchange
Clock's ticking
125days leftSaid Dec 18, 2025Added to Thonest Aug 28, 2026
Rob ToewsContributor, Forbes; venture capitalist writing on artificial intelligence
In 2026, details of SSI’s approach will finally leak to the public.
Clock's ticking
125days leftSaid Dec 22, 2025Added to Thonest Aug 28, 2026
Rob ToewsContributor, Forbes; venture capitalist writing on artificial intelligence
One of the large global pharma companies will acquire one of the leading protein AI startups.
Clock's ticking
125days leftSaid Dec 22, 2025Added to Thonest Aug 28, 2026
Rob ToewsContributor, Forbes; venture capitalist writing on artificial intelligence
Sam Altman will step aside as CEO of OpenAI.
Clock's ticking
125days leftSaid Dec 22, 2025Added to Thonest Aug 28, 2026
Rob ToewsContributor, Forbes; venture capitalist writing on artificial intelligence
OpenAI, too, will eventually become a publicly traded company. But not in 2026.
Clock's ticking
125days leftSaid Dec 22, 2025Added to Thonest Aug 28, 2026
Rob ToewsContributor, Forbes; venture capitalist writing on artificial intelligence
In 2026, Anthropic will debut on public markets. It will be one of the biggest and most highly anticipated IPOs of all-time.
Clock's ticking
125days leftSaid Dec 22, 2025Added to Thonest Aug 28, 2026
Nate SilverFounder, Silver Bulletin
At least one new Supreme Court vacancy in the 119th or 120th Congress.
Clock's ticking
2years outSaid Jan 26, 2025Added to Thonest Aug 28, 2026
Nate SilverFounder, Silver Bulletin
Mike Johnson remains Speaker of the House through 11/3/2026
Clock's ticking
67days leftSaid Jan 26, 2025Added to Thonest Aug 28, 2026
Nate SilverFounder, Silver Bulletin
Democrats win the presidency in 2028.
Clock's ticking
2years outSaid Jan 26, 2025Added to Thonest Aug 28, 2026
Nate SilverFounder, Silver Bulletin
Democrats win the Senate in 2026
Clock's ticking
128days leftSaid Jan 26, 2025Added to Thonest Aug 28, 2026
Nate SilverFounder, Silver Bulletin
Democrats take control of the House before the 2026 midterms through special elections or party switches.
Clock's ticking
67days leftSaid Jan 26, 2025Added to Thonest Aug 28, 2026
Nate SilverFounder, Silver Bulletin
Democrats win the House in the 2026 midterms.
Clock's ticking
128days leftSaid Jan 26, 2025Added to Thonest Aug 28, 2026
Jakob NielsenUX expert, founder of Nielsen Norman Group; author of 'Jakob Nielsen on UX'
In contrast, 2026 will see the release of the first breakout hit video game created entirely by a creator with no formal programming skills who built the entire game using natural language prompts.
Clock's ticking
125days leftSaid Jan 13, 2026Added to Thonest Aug 28, 2026
Jakob NielsenUX expert, founder of Nielsen Norman Group; author of 'Jakob Nielsen on UX'
Models like Flux, Ideogram, Leonardo, Midjourney, and Reve will likely be acquired by multimodal AI labs such as Google, Meta, OpenAI, and xAI.
Clock's ticking
125days leftSaid Jan 13, 2026Added to Thonest Aug 28, 2026
Jakob NielsenUX expert, founder of Nielsen Norman Group; author of 'Jakob Nielsen on UX'
For some reason, the big AI labs haven’t released music models yet, but this is likely to happen in 2026.
Clock's ticking
125days leftSaid Jan 13, 2026Added to Thonest Aug 28, 2026
Jakob NielsenUX expert, founder of Nielsen Norman Group; author of 'Jakob Nielsen on UX'
By the end of 2030 (when superintelligence is expected), AI will perform tasks that take humans approximately 100 years to complete, doing so in less than a day.
Clock's ticking
4years outSaid Jan 13, 2026Added to Thonest Aug 28, 2026
Jakob NielsenUX expert, founder of Nielsen Norman Group; author of 'Jakob Nielsen on UX'
By the end of 2027 , AI will complete tasks that take a human two months, doing so in perhaps an hour while consuming roughly $100 worth of compute.
Clock's ticking
1year outSaid Jan 13, 2026Added to Thonest Aug 28, 2026
Jakob NielsenUX expert, founder of Nielsen Norman Group; author of 'Jakob Nielsen on UX'
By the end of 2026, AI will likely perform tasks that take a human 39 hours which is more than a full work week when you account for meetings and other non-task activities.
Clock's ticking
125days leftSaid Jan 13, 2026Added to Thonest Aug 28, 2026
Elon Musk
I think it can be done in thirty years, provided there's an exponential increase in tonnage to Mars with each successive transfer window every two years.
On the record
Said Sep 9, 2025Added to Thonest Aug 28, 2026
Elon Musk
I think that we might have AI smarter than any single human at anything as soon as next year. And probably by 2030, AI is smarter than the sum of all humans.
On the record
Said Sep 9, 2025Added to Thonest Aug 28, 2026
Elon Musk
Unless we have some very major setbacks, SpaceX will demonstrate full reusability next year, catching both the booster and the ship and delivering over a hundred tons to a useful orbit.
Clock's ticking
125days leftSaid Sep 9, 2025Added to Thonest Aug 28, 2026
Elon Musk
So the phones that are able to use the spectrum that was acquired probably start shipping in around two years.
On the record
Said Sep 9, 2025Added to Thonest Aug 28, 2026
Elon Musk
Your car is going to feel like it is sentient by the end of the year.
On the record
Said Sep 9, 2025Added to Thonest Aug 28, 2026
Elon Musk
We're finalizing the design of AI5, which will be an immense jump from AI4. By some metrics, the improvement in AI5 will be forty times better than AI4.
On the record
Said Sep 9, 2025Added to Thonest Aug 28, 2026
Elon Musk
I think the marginal cost of production once you hit a million units per year is probably around the twenty thousand dollar range.
On the record
Said Sep 9, 2025Added to Thonest Aug 28, 2026
Sam Altman
we're not going to have our AI, you know, try to convince people that it should be like in an exclusive romantic relationship with them, for example.
On the record
Said Dec 18, 2025Added to Thonest Aug 28, 2026

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