What they said, on the record.
101 records, each independently verifiable.
Casey NewtonFounder and editor, Platformer
“Look for at least three Democrats to win House seats promising to stop the construction of data centers in their districts, or creating new protections for people who lose their jobs to automation.”
Casey NewtonFounder and editor, Platformer
“Trump starts a legal fight with the European Union over tech regulation”
Casey NewtonFounder and editor, Platformer
“In 2026, look for a nation-state or group of cybercriminals to weaponize an LLM to cause significant damage, and give AI safety advocates the concrete evidence they’ve been looking for to push for stronger regulations on AI development.”
Casey NewtonFounder and editor, Platformer
“By the end of 2026, expect Meta’s models to still fall short of state-of-the-art — and Mark Zuckerberg to shuffle his executive lineup again in response.”
Casey NewtonFounder and editor, Platformer
“A judge rules that Google must spin out its ad exchange”
Rob ToewsContributor, Forbes; venture capitalist writing on artificial intelligence
“In 2026, details of SSI’s approach will finally leak to the public.”
Rob ToewsContributor, Forbes; venture capitalist writing on artificial intelligence
“One of the large global pharma companies will acquire one of the leading protein AI startups.”
Rob ToewsContributor, Forbes; venture capitalist writing on artificial intelligence
“Sam Altman will step aside as CEO of OpenAI.”
Rob ToewsContributor, Forbes; venture capitalist writing on artificial intelligence
“OpenAI, too, will eventually become a publicly traded company. But not in 2026.”
Rob ToewsContributor, Forbes; venture capitalist writing on artificial intelligence
“In 2026, Anthropic will debut on public markets. It will be one of the biggest and most highly anticipated IPOs of all-time.”
Nate SilverFounder, Silver Bulletin
“At least one new Supreme Court vacancy in the 119th or 120th Congress.”
Nate SilverFounder, Silver Bulletin
“Mike Johnson remains Speaker of the House through 11/3/2026”
Nate SilverFounder, Silver Bulletin
“Democrats win the presidency in 2028.”
Nate SilverFounder, Silver Bulletin
“Democrats win the Senate in 2026”
Nate SilverFounder, Silver Bulletin
“Democrats take control of the House before the 2026 midterms through special elections or party switches.”
Nate SilverFounder, Silver Bulletin
“Democrats win the House in the 2026 midterms.”
Jakob NielsenUX expert, founder of Nielsen Norman Group; author of 'Jakob Nielsen on UX'
“In contrast, 2026 will see the release of the first breakout hit video game created entirely by a creator with no formal programming skills who built the entire game using natural language prompts.”
Jakob NielsenUX expert, founder of Nielsen Norman Group; author of 'Jakob Nielsen on UX'
“Models like Flux, Ideogram, Leonardo, Midjourney, and Reve will likely be acquired by multimodal AI labs such as Google, Meta, OpenAI, and xAI.”
Jakob NielsenUX expert, founder of Nielsen Norman Group; author of 'Jakob Nielsen on UX'
“For some reason, the big AI labs haven’t released music models yet, but this is likely to happen in 2026.”
Jakob NielsenUX expert, founder of Nielsen Norman Group; author of 'Jakob Nielsen on UX'
“By the end of 2030 (when superintelligence is expected), AI will perform tasks that take humans approximately 100 years to complete, doing so in less than a day.”
Jakob NielsenUX expert, founder of Nielsen Norman Group; author of 'Jakob Nielsen on UX'
“By the end of 2027 , AI will complete tasks that take a human two months, doing so in perhaps an hour while consuming roughly $100 worth of compute.”
Jakob NielsenUX expert, founder of Nielsen Norman Group; author of 'Jakob Nielsen on UX'
“By the end of 2026, AI will likely perform tasks that take a human 39 hours which is more than a full work week when you account for meetings and other non-task activities.”
Elon Musk
“I think it can be done in thirty years, provided there's an exponential increase in tonnage to Mars with each successive transfer window every two years.”
Elon Musk
“I think that we might have AI smarter than any single human at anything as soon as next year. And probably by 2030, AI is smarter than the sum of all humans.”
Elon Musk
“Unless we have some very major setbacks, SpaceX will demonstrate full reusability next year, catching both the booster and the ship and delivering over a hundred tons to a useful orbit.”
Elon Musk
“So the phones that are able to use the spectrum that was acquired probably start shipping in around two years.”
Elon Musk
“Your car is going to feel like it is sentient by the end of the year.”
Elon Musk
“We're finalizing the design of AI5, which will be an immense jump from AI4. By some metrics, the improvement in AI5 will be forty times better than AI4.”
Elon Musk
“I think the marginal cost of production once you hit a million units per year is probably around the twenty thousand dollar range.”
Sam Altman
“we're not going to have our AI, you know, try to convince people that it should be like in an exclusive romantic relationship with them, for example.”
Also on the record: the historical archive — claims registered after their outcome was already known, kept separate and never counted in anyone’s track record.
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