Loading…
Nate Silver called it:
“Mike Johnson remains Speaker of the House through 11/3/2026”
We find out by Nov 3, 2026. 42 days to go · on the record 26 days, before anyone knew the answer
MET if Mike Johnson is the sitting Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives, per official House records in every period, before 2026-11-03 23:59 (America/New_York).
Settles by documented review of public evidence against these locked criteria; the reviewer is named and the reasoning published.
Resolves YES if Mike Johnson holds the office of Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives continuously from January 26, 2025 through November 3, 2026. Resolves NO if at any point in that window another person holds or is elected to the speakership (a brief vacancy or speaker pro tempore replacing Johnson counts as NO).
Quote verified against the source
Added by Thonest from a public source. The person quoted did not submit, approve, or endorse this record; the wording is verified against the source itself.
Read the original on natesilver.net ↗
Reactions are about the record being worth keeping — never about whether the person was right. They are never counted for or against anyone, and never used to rank anything.
Discussion
Loading…
Sixth listed prediction in Silver's Jan 26, 2025 post, given 60% against a Manifold market he cites at 50%.
History — append-only
Proof
Disputes
No disputes have been filed. If something here is wrong — a misquote, a wrong date, a misattributed source — say so and it gets answered on the record. How disputes work.
Related
✓ The anchored proof cannot be rewritten, and the published record is append-only by default. Everything that happened afterward is in the history above — corrections are appended, never silently edited in.
The check runs in your browser and reads the anchored root straight from a public Base node — not from Thonest. How this works.