Nate Silver called it:
“Mike Johnson remains Speaker of the House through 11/3/2026”
We find out by Nov 3, 2026. 68 days to go
Nate Silver: “Mike Johnson remains Speaker of the House through 11/3/2026”
MET if Mike Johnson is the sitting Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives, per official House records in every period, before 2026-11-03 23:59 (America/New_York).
Settles by documented review of public evidence against these locked criteria; the reviewer is named and the reasoning published.
Test details
Resolves YES if Mike Johnson holds the office of Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives continuously from January 26, 2025 through November 3, 2026. Resolves NO if at any point in that window another person holds or is elected to the speakership (a brief vacancy or speaker pro tempore replacing Johnson counts as NO).
Quote verified against the source
Added by Thonest from a public source. The person quoted did not submit, approve, or endorse this record; the wording is verified against the source itself.
Read the original on natesilver.net ↗
Reactions are about the record being worth keeping — never about whether the person was right. They are never counted for or against anyone, and never used to rank anything.
Discussion
Loading…
Sixth listed prediction in Silver's Jan 26, 2025 post, given 60% against a Manifold market he cites at 50%.
History — append-only
Proof
2 hashes from this record to the anchored root
- 0x3ab6266ff653527e40ace5911c657a5179b1a092541a033227c6b6fc10470f99
- 0x27b50def16142ce1deed8af05188ea6ed6778c2f07058063d6d03e2f1a837e1a
batch #101 manifest · 4 entries
the contract refuses any batch that doesn’t follow the previous one, and has no function to edit or delete one — including for us
0x0d7a75c8…0dc456 on block explorer
No independent copy could be captured for this source.
view the canonical capture · the page as served to us, kept verbatim and covered by the evidence hash
✓ The anchored proof cannot be rewritten, and the published record is append-only by default. Everything that happened afterward is in the history above — corrections are appended, never silently edited in.
The check runs in your browser and reads the anchored root straight from a public Base node — not from Thonest. How this works.
Disputes
No disputes have been filed. If something here is wrong — a misquote, a wrong date, a misattributed source — say so and it gets answered on the record. How disputes work.
Related