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Nate Silver called it:
“Democrats take control of the House before the 2026 midterms through special elections or party switches.”
We find out by Nov 3, 2026. 42 days to go · on the record 26 days, before anyone knew the answer
MET if Democrats hold a majority of the voting membership of the U.S. House of Representatives at any point before the 2026 midterm elections, arising from special elections, party switches or vacancies (per official House Clerk records) at any point, before 2026-11-03 23:59 (America/New_York).
Settles by documented review of public evidence against these locked criteria; the reviewer is named and the reasoning published.
Resolves YES if at any point between January 26, 2025 and Election Day of the 2026 midterms (November 3, 2026), Democrats hold a majority of voting seats in the U.S. House of Representatives as a result of special elections, party switches, resignations or vacancies. Resolves NO if Republicans retain a House majority throughout that period.
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Second listed prediction in Silver's Jan 26, 2025 '113 predictions' post, given a 10% probability.
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