2026 midterm election predictions
Dated forecasts about elections, control of Congress and political outcomes, from forecasters who published them under their own name.
8 records from 4 people · 8 still running · 0 with no clock
Next to settle: Nate Silver in 67 days (November 3, 2026).
Still running · 8
“Mike Johnson remains Speaker of the House through 11/3/2026”
“Democrats take control of the House before the 2026 midterms through special elections or party switches.”
“In the midterms, AI will be an election issue for first time.”
“Look for at least three Democrats to win House seats promising to stop the construction of data centers in their districts, or creating new protections for people who lose their jobs to automation.”
“Democrats win the Senate in 2026”
“Democrats win the House in the 2026 midterms.”
“Our forecasters think there’s a 5.2% (2% to 10%) chance that the US Senate will pause frontier AI development in the US before 2029, absent a treaty with China.”
“At least one new Supreme Court vacancy in the 119th or 120th Congress.”
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