Open until 2026-11-03 — 76 days away. Settlement rests on public evidence, gathered and checked after the deadline.
Gary Marcus: “In the midterms, AI will be an election issue for first time.”
“In the midterms, AI will be an election issue for first time.”
MET if Artificial intelligence policy features as a substantive campaign issue in the 2026 U.S. midterm elections, evidenced by AI-focused campaign ads, candidate platform planks, or debate questions in multiple federal or statewide races, as documented by reputable national press. Passing mentions by a single candidate do not count. at any point, before 2026-11-03 23:59 (America/New_York).
The original wording did not settle the timing on its own. The reading above was chosen at registration and locked with the claim — it was not decided after the fact.
Resolves TRUE if, in the November 3, 2026 U.S. midterm elections, artificial intelligence policy (e.g., AI regulation, data centers, job displacement, deregulation preemption) is a substantive campaign issue — evidenced by AI-focused campaign advertising, candidate platform planks, or debate questions in multiple federal or statewide races, as documented by reputable national press. Resolves FALSE if no such substantive AI-policy campaigning is documented in multiple races.
Thonest does not settle this one automatically — there is no supported data source for it. The test is fixed all the same, so anyone can check it and nobody can change what counts.
Quote verified against the source
Read the original on Substack ↗
Part of Marcus's sixth 2026 prediction, about escalating backlash to generative AI and deregulation.
Resolution criteria
Resolves TRUE if, in the November 3, 2026 U.S. midterm elections, artificial intelligence policy (e.g., AI regulation, data centers, job displacement, deregulation preemption) is a substantive campaign issue — evidenced by AI-focused campaign advertising, candidate platform planks, or debate questions in multiple federal or statewide races, as documented by reputable national press. Resolves FALSE if no such substantive AI-policy campaigning is documented in multiple races.
History — append-only
Proof
2 hashes from this record to the anchored root
- 0x5e66a32a1e7f72428816a4aee00024bfa0cfdb9ecb83901405772debd6b387ff
- 0xf72ee58a8009b9f30f825c15787a35654736f642ed2da2f2925c19b8043fcaca
batch #23 manifest · 4 entries
the contract refuses any batch that doesn’t follow the previous one, and has no function to edit or delete one — including for us
0x70a44e0b…a40231 on block explorer
view the raw response · the page as served to us, kept verbatim and covered by the evidence hash
✓ The original record is immutable. Everything that happened afterward is in the history above — nothing is ever silently edited.
The check runs in your browser and reads the anchored root straight from a public Base node — not from Thonest. How this works.
Disputes
No disputes have been filed. If something here is wrong — a misquote, a wrong date, a misattributed source — say so and it gets answered on the record. How disputes work.
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