Collection
Self-driving and robotaxi predictions for 2026
Public claims about driverless cars, robotaxis and humanoid robots, with the deadline each one carries and the source it came from.
4 claims from 3 people. This is what has been recorded with a source, not everything said on the subject.
Still running
All deadlines →Timothy B. LeeAuthor, Understanding AI
“I expect the same will be true for Tesla — the first truly driverless Robotaxis will arrive in 2026, but technical and logistical challenges will limit how rapidly they expand.”
Clock's ticking
80days leftSaid Dec 31, 2025Added to Thonest Aug 22, 2026
Gary MarcusAI researcher and author; critic of large language models
“Human domestic robots like Optimus and Figure will be all demo and very little product.”
Clock's ticking
80days leftSaid Dec 20, 2025Added to Thonest Aug 20, 2026
On the record, no clock
These carry no deadline or no test that could settle them. They stay on the record and stay unresolved — an untestable claim does not become a verdict by sitting here long enough.
Cathie Wood
“we think that Tesla's solution from a cost point of view will be 50% lower than Waymo's and therefore it will be able to charge less.”
On the record
Said Jan 29, 2026Added to Thonest Aug 28, 2026
Cathie Wood
“we expect Tesla to be the biggest winner from a platform point of view. Waymo will be second.”
On the record
Said Jan 29, 2026Added to Thonest Aug 28, 2026
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