Self-driving and robotaxi predictions for 2026

Public claims about driverless cars, robotaxis and humanoid robots, with the deadline each one carries and the source it came from.

4 records from 3 people · 2 still running · 2 with no clock

Next to settle: Timothy B. Lee in 125 days (December 31, 2026).

Still running · 2

Timothy B. LeeAuthor, Understanding AI
“I expect the same will be true for Tesla — the first truly driverless Robotaxis will arrive in 2026, but technical and logistical challenges will limit how rapidly they expand.”
Clock's ticking
125days leftSaid Dec 31, 2025Added to Thonest Aug 22, 2026
Gary MarcusAI researcher and author; critic of large language models
“Human domestic robots like Optimus and Figure will be all demo and very little product.”
Clock's ticking
125days leftSaid Dec 20, 2025Added to Thonest Aug 20, 2026
2 more said on the subject — no test, never scored
Cathie Wood
“we think that Tesla's solution from a cost point of view will be 50% lower than Waymo's and therefore it will be able to charge less.”
Said Jan 29, 2026Added to Thonest Aug 28, 2026
Cathie Wood
“we expect Tesla to be the biggest winner from a platform point of view. Waymo will be second.”
Said Jan 29, 2026Added to Thonest Aug 28, 2026

Every record here quotes its source exactly and carries the date it was said. Where the words name something measurable and a deadline, the test that settles it was locked before the outcome was known — what gets recorded and what never gets scored. Missing something? Put it on the record.

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