Collection
AGI timeline: when people say it arrives
Dated public claims about when artificial general intelligence arrives, kept with their sources so the goalposts can be checked against what was originally said.
4 claims from 4 people. This is what has been recorded with a source, not everything said on the subject.
Still running
All deadlines →“We won’t get to AGI in 2026 (or 7).”
“By the end of 2030 (when superintelligence is expected), AI will perform tasks that take humans approximately 100 years to complete, doing so in less than a day.”
On the record, no clock
These carry no deadline or no test that could settle them. They stay on the record and stay unresolved — an untestable claim does not become a verdict by sitting here long enough.
“Will the AI think it has reached AGI by 2030? I would say we will just fall short of that timeline, so I think it'll take a bit longer.”
“I think that we might have AI smarter than any single human at anything as soon as next year. And probably by 2030, AI is smarter than the sum of all humans.”
Other collections
AI predictions for 2026 · Bitcoin price predictions for 2026 · Will AI take your job? What people actually predicted · Longevity and life extension predictions · Self-driving and robotaxi predictions for 2026 · 2026 midterm election predictions · Economy predictions for 2026: inflation, rates, GDP