AGI timeline: when people say it arrives

Dated public claims about when artificial general intelligence arrives, kept with their sources so the goalposts can be checked against what was originally said.

3 records from 3 people · 2 still running · 1 with no clock

Next to settle: Gary Marcus in 490 days (December 31, 2027).

Still running · 2

Gary MarcusAI researcher and author; critic of large language models
“We won’t get to AGI in 2026 (or 7).”
Clock's ticking
1year outSaid Dec 20, 2025Added to Thonest Aug 20, 2026
Jakob NielsenUX expert, founder of Nielsen Norman Group; author of 'Jakob Nielsen on UX'
“By the end of 2030 (when superintelligence is expected), AI will perform tasks that take humans approximately 100 years to complete, doing so in less than a day.”
Clock's ticking
4years outSaid Jan 13, 2026Added to Thonest Aug 28, 2026
1 more said on the subject — no test, never scored
Elon Musk
“I think that we might have AI smarter than any single human at anything as soon as next year. And probably by 2030, AI is smarter than the sum of all humans.”
Said Sep 9, 2025Added to Thonest Aug 28, 2026

Every record here quotes its source exactly and carries the date it was said. Where the words name something measurable and a deadline, the test that settles it was locked before the outcome was known — what gets recorded and what never gets scored. Missing something? Put it on the record.

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