Collection
Economy predictions for 2026: inflation, rates, GDP
Macro calls with a number and a date on them — inflation, GDP, the Fed, capital spending — kept with the source and settled against the published series.
4 claims from 3 people. This is what has been recorded with a source, not everything said on the subject.
Still running
All deadlines →Timothy B. LeeAuthor, Understanding AI
“So here’s my prediction: inflation-adjusted GDP in the third quarter of 2026 will not be more than 3.5% higher than the third quarter of 2025.”
Clock's ticking🔔 1 watching
Said Dec 31, 2025Added to Thonest Aug 22, 2026
Timothy B. LeeAuthor, Understanding AI
“I don’t expect Big Tech’s capital spending to grow as much in 2026 as it did in 2025, but I do expect it to grow, ultimately exceeding $500 billion for the year.”
Clock's ticking
80days leftSaid Dec 31, 2025Added to Thonest Aug 22, 2026
Bryan CaplanProfessor of Economics, George Mason University; author of Bet On It
“I’ve paid him $250, and if the world doesn’t end by January 1, 2030, Colburn will repay me $500 inflation-adjusted.”
Clock's ticking
3years outSaid Apr 21, 2026Added to Thonest Aug 22, 2026
On the record, no clock
These carry no deadline or no test that could settle them. They stay on the record and stay unresolved — an untestable claim does not become a verdict by sitting here long enough.
Arthur HayesCo-founder, BitMEX; CIO, Maelstrom
“Next year we will experience the true AI bubble peak, and then the market will reward hyperscalers who defect by decreasing CAPEX budgets.”
On the record
Said Aug 4, 2026Added to Thonest Aug 22, 2026
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