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Macro calls with a number and a date on them — inflation, GDP, the Fed, capital spending — kept with the source and settled against the published series.
4 claims from 3 people. This is what has been recorded with a source, not everything said on the subject.
“So here’s my prediction: inflation-adjusted GDP in the third quarter of 2026 will not be more than 3.5% higher than the third quarter of 2025.”
“I don’t expect Big Tech’s capital spending to grow as much in 2026 as it did in 2025, but I do expect it to grow, ultimately exceeding $500 billion for the year.”
“I’ve paid him $250, and if the world doesn’t end by January 1, 2030, Colburn will repay me $500 inflation-adjusted.”
These carry no deadline or no test that could settle them. They stay on the record and stay unresolved — an untestable claim does not become a verdict by sitting here long enough.
“Next year we will experience the true AI bubble peak, and then the market will reward hyperscalers who defect by decreasing CAPEX budgets.”
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