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Timothy B. Lee called it:
“So here’s my prediction: inflation-adjusted GDP in the third quarter of 2026 will not be more than 3.5% higher than the third quarter of 2025.”
We find out by Sep 30, 2026. 8 days to go · on the record 31 days, before anyone knew the answer
MET if the percentage change in GDPC1 value is at or below 3.5 on the deadline date, before 2026-09-30 23:59 (America/New_York).
Settles automatically from the locked data source — no judgment call, no human vote.
The original wording did not settle the timing on its own. The reading above was chosen at registration and locked with the claim — it was not decided after the fact.
Settles TRUE if US real (inflation-adjusted) GDP for 2026 Q3, per the BEA/FRED series GDPC1, is not more than 3.5% higher than 2026's Q3-2025 level — i.e. year-over-year real GDP growth for Q3 2026 is 3.5% or less. FALSE if that growth exceeds 3.5%.
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Prediction #4 (90% confidence), framed as a test of whether an AI-driven 'fast takeoff' is visible in US macroeconomic data.
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