Coming due

The clock is public.

Every prediction here was locked before anyone knew the answer — the exact words, the original source, and the test that settles it. When the date arrives, the locked test decides. Nobody moves the goalposts, including us.

1 due within 30 days2 within 9010 open with a deadline
Open Settles on evidenceSelf-registered
The Fed will maintain the interest rate in their September decision
Justin KompfRegistered 2026-08-1928 days left
Open Settles on evidence
In the midterms, AI will be an election issue for first time.
Gary MarcusRegistered 2025-12-2076 days left
Open Settles on evidence
Human domestic robots like Optimus and Figure will be all demo and very little product.
Gary MarcusRegistered 2025-12-20134 days left
Open Settles on evidence
No country will take a decisive lead in the GenAI “race”
Gary MarcusRegistered 2025-12-20134 days left
Open Settles automaticallySelf-registered
Bitcoin will reach 200k by the end of 2026.
SamRegistered 2026-08-19134 days left
Open Settles on evidence
In fact, I would argue that the more likely scenario is that 2026 is a red year for BTC while the ISM goes up, exactly like how it played out more than a decade ago.
Benjamin CowenRegistered 2026-06-04134 days left
Open Settles on evidence
If there exist AI systems that can perform 8 of the 10 tasks below by the end of 2027, as determined by our panel of judges, Gary will donate $2,000 to a charity of Miles’ choice; if AI can do fewer than 8, Miles will donate $20,000 to a charity of Gary’s choice.
Gary MarcusRegistered 2024-12-30499 days left
Open Settles on evidence
We won’t get to AGI in 2026 (or 7).
Gary MarcusRegistered 2025-12-20499 days left
Open Settles automatically
Of course bitcoin can still drop below realized price ($53k), like it did in every bear market bottom. But Oct $126k top was not the cycle top IMO. Based on stock-to-flow valuation, BTC could still go to $500k ($250k - $1m range) .. this cycle (2026-2028! Patience
PlanBRegistered 2026-07-15865 days left
Open Settles on evidenceSelf-registered
AOC will be president in 2028.
SamRegistered 2026-08-19885 days left

Called something yourself?

Put it on the record before the outcome, and you get the same thing these people have: proof you said it first, with a test nobody can rewrite afterwards.

Put it on the record