2027 predictions: 7 on the record
5 named people put these on the record before the outcome was known. Each carries the exact words, the original source, and a test that was locked in advance and cannot be changed now.
Nothing decided yet. All 7 are still running.
January 3 · 2 records
August 15 · 1 record
December 31 · 4 records
Jakob NielsenUX expert, founder of Nielsen Norman Group; author of 'Jakob Nielsen on UX'
“By the end of 2027 , AI will complete tasks that take a human two months, doing so in perhaps an hour while consuming roughly $100 worth of compute.”
Alex ThornHead of Firmwide Research, Galaxy Digital
“BTC will hit $250k by year-end 2027. 2026 is too chaotic to predict, though Bitcoin making new all-time highs in 2026 is still possible. Options markets are currently pricing about equal odds of $70k or $130k for month-end June 2026, and equal odds of $50k or $250k by year-end…”
Gary MarcusAI researcher and author; critic of large language models
“If there exist AI systems that can perform 8 of the 10 tasks below by the end of 2027, as determined by our panel of judges, Gary will donate $2,000 to a charity of Miles’ choice; if AI can do fewer than 8, Miles will donate $20,000 to a charity of Gary’s choice.”
Gary MarcusAI researcher and author; critic of large language models
“We won’t get to AGI in 2026 (or 7).”
On this page: Alex Thorn · Gary Marcus · Jakob Nielsen · Nate Silver · Nuño Sempere.
Every test here was written down and anchored before anyone knew the answer, so none of it can be quietly adjusted afterwards — check any of it yourself. Know a 2027 call that belongs here? Put it on the record.