Public record

Peter Wildeford

Forecaster and author, The Power Law · @peterwildeford

4Registered

31Days standing

3Awaiting outcome

1Not scored

1Due soon

This is what contributors have logged — not everything Peter Wildeford has said. Counts, not a score. Every record is one tap away, with the test that settled it. Third-party records here were added from public sources and verified against them; Peter Wildeford did not submit or approve them, and being profiled is not an endorsement of Thonest. “Days standing” is how long their longest open call has been public — how early they said it, not whether they were right.

Coming due

Peter WildefordForecaster and author, The Power Law

“Running this, I get a 4% chance that there will be more than 5 cases from people outside those on the Hondius cruise, with a 70% chance of at least one non-passenger case by August, and about a 17% chance of three or more.”

Clock's ticking

🔔 2 watching

Said May 11, 2026Added to Thonest Aug 22, 2026

Open — awaiting outcome

Peter WildefordForecaster and author, The Power Law

“The first asks “Will WHO declare hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern before 2027?” — as of the time of writing, the median of community predictions is at 2% and I am currently forecasting 0.4%”

Clock's ticking

100days leftSaid May 11, 2026Added to Thonest Aug 22, 2026

Peter WildefordForecaster and author, The Power Law

“My assessment is that there’s roughly a 30% chance of a significant AI-driven market correction with at least a >20% drawdown in AI-heavy stocks, sometime within the next three years.”

Clock's ticking

2years outSaid Oct 29, 2025Added to Thonest Aug 22, 2026

1 more on the record — no test, never scored

Peter WildefordForecaster and author, The Power Law

“I will say, with confidence, that this will not spiral into a new major pandemic.”

On the record

Said May 11, 2026Added to Thonest Aug 22, 2026