Public record

Peter Wildeford

Forecaster and author, The Power Law · @peterwildeford

4Registered
3Awaiting outcome
1Not scored
1Due soon

Counts, not a score. Every record is one tap away, with the test that settled it. Third-party records here were added from public sources and verified against them; Peter Wildeford did not submit or approve them, and being profiled is not an endorsement of Thonest.

Coming due

Open
“Running this, I get a 4% chance that there will be more than 5 cases from people outside those on the Hondius cruise, with a 70% chance of at least one non-passenger case by August, and about a 17% chance of three or more.”
Peter WildefordSaid May 11, 2026Added to Thonest Aug 22, 202610 days left

Open — awaiting outcome

Open
“The first asks “Will WHO declare hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern before 2027?” — as of the time of writing, the median of community predictions is at 2% and I am currently forecasting 0.4%”
Peter WildefordSaid May 11, 2026Added to Thonest Aug 22, 2026132 days left
Open
“My assessment is that there’s roughly a 30% chance of a significant AI-driven market correction with at least a >20% drawdown in AI-heavy stocks, sometime within the next three years.”
Peter WildefordSaid Oct 29, 2025Added to Thonest Aug 22, 2026800 days left

Preserved — no test, never scored

Not scored
“I will say, with confidence, that this will not spiral into a new major pandemic.”
Peter WildefordSaid May 11, 2026Added to Thonest Aug 22, 2026No deadline — never resolves