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Public record
Founder, Silver Bulletin · @NateSilver538
This is what contributors have logged — not everything Nate Silver has said. Counts, not a score. Every record is one tap away, with the test that settled it. Third-party records here were added from public sources and verified against them; Nate Silver did not submit or approve them, and being profiled is not an endorsement of Thonest. “Days standing” is how long their longest open call has been public — how early they said it, not whether they were right.
Coming due
“Democrats take control of the House before the 2026 midterms through special elections or party switches.”
“Mike Johnson remains Speaker of the House through 11/3/2026”
Open — awaiting outcome
“Democrats win the Senate in 2026”
“At least one new Supreme Court vacancy in the 119th or 120th Congress.”
“Democrats win the House in the 2026 midterms.”
“Democrats win the presidency in 2028.”