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Public record
Founder and editor, Platformer · @CaseyNewton
This is what contributors have logged — not everything Casey Newton has said. Counts, not a score. Every record is one tap away, with the test that settled it. Third-party records here were added from public sources and verified against them; Casey Newton did not submit or approve them, and being profiled is not an endorsement of Thonest. “Days standing” is how long their longest open call has been public — how early they said it, not whether they were right.
Open — awaiting outcome
“By the end of 2026, expect Meta’s models to still fall short of state-of-the-art — and Mark Zuckerberg to shuffle his executive lineup again in response.”
“Trump starts a legal fight with the European Union over tech regulation”
“In 2026, look for a nation-state or group of cybercriminals to weaponize an LLM to cause significant damage, and give AI safety advocates the concrete evidence they’ve been looking for to push for stronger regulations on AI development.”
“Look for at least three Democrats to win House seats promising to stop the construction of data centers in their districts, or creating new protections for people who lose their jobs to automation.”
“A judge rules that Google must spin out its ad exchange”