Public record
Nuño Sempere
Superforecaster; Head of Foresight, Sentinel
4Registered
4Awaiting outcome
Counts, not a score. Every record is one tap away, with the test that settled it. Third-party records here were added from public sources and verified against them; Nuño Sempere did not submit or approve them, and being profiled is not an endorsement of Thonest.
Open — awaiting outcome
Open
“Our forecasters’ 90% confidence interval for the largest number of deaths (civilian and/or military) that Russia will inflict in a NATO country in a single incident before August 15, 2027 is 0 to 20, with the 50th percentile- falling between zero and one deaths.”
Open
“Our forecasters’ aggregate estimate for the number of confirmed Bundibugyo ebolavirus deaths reported by the end of 2026 is 5.1K to 42K, with a 50th percentile point at 12.8K.”
Open
“Forecasters estimate that there is an aggregate 9.6% (5% to 15%) probability that a Google DeepMind model will be among the top 3 models at the end of 2026, according to Epoch’s capability index.”
Open
“Our forecasters think there’s a 5.2% (2% to 10%) chance that the US Senate will pause frontier AI development in the US before 2029, absent a treaty with China.”