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Public record
Superforecaster; Head of Foresight, Sentinel
This is what contributors have logged — not everything Nuño Sempere has said. Counts, not a score. Every record is one tap away, with the test that settled it. Third-party records here were added from public sources and verified against them; Nuño Sempere did not submit or approve them, and being profiled is not an endorsement of Thonest. “Days standing” is how long their longest open call has been public — how early they said it, not whether they were right.
Open — awaiting outcome
“Our forecasters’ 90% confidence interval for the largest number of deaths (civilian and/or military) that Russia will inflict in a NATO country in a single incident before August 15, 2027 is 0 to 20, with the 50th percentile- falling between zero and one deaths.”
“Forecasters estimate that there is an aggregate 9.6% (5% to 15%) probability that a Google DeepMind model will be among the top 3 models at the end of 2026, according to Epoch’s capability index.”
“Our forecasters’ aggregate estimate for the number of confirmed Bundibugyo ebolavirus deaths reported by the end of 2026 is 5.1K to 42K, with a 50th percentile point at 12.8K.”
“Our forecasters think there’s a 5.2% (2% to 10%) chance that the US Senate will pause frontier AI development in the US before 2029, absent a treaty with China.”