Peter Wildeford called it:
“Running this, I get a 4% chance that there will be more than 5 cases from people outside those on the Hondius cruise, with a 70% chance of at least one non-passenger case by August, and about a 17% chance of three or more.”
We find out by Aug 31, 2026. 10 days to go
Peter Wildeford: “Running this, I get a 4% chance that there will be more than 5 cases from people outside those on the Hondius cruise, with a 70% chance of at least one non-passenger case by August, and about a 17% chance of three or more.”
MET if Number of non-passenger persons (not aboard the MV Hondius) publicly reported by a health authority as a confirmed or probable hantavirus case linked to the Hondius outbreak at any point, before 2026-08-31 23:59 (UTC).
Settles by documented review of public evidence against these locked criteria; the reviewer is named and the reasoning published.
The original wording did not settle the timing on its own. The reading above was chosen at registration and locked with the claim — it was not decided after the fact.
Test details
Resolves YES if at least one person who was not aboard the MV Hondius is publicly reported by health authorities as a confirmed or probable hantavirus case linked to the Hondius outbreak by August 31, 2026. Wildeford put the probability of this at 70%.
Quote verified against the source
Added by Thonest from a public source. The person quoted did not submit, approve, or endorse this record; the wording is verified against the source itself.
Read the original on blog.peterwildeford.com ↗
Output of Wildeford's probabilistic exposure-pool model of secondary transmission from the Hondius outbreak.
History — append-only
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